Group H · Matchday 3
← Vor-Spiel-PrognoseLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Spain win57.4%
- Draw26.5%
- Uruguay win16.1%
Analysis
The model gives Spain a moderate advantage at 57.4% versus 16.1% for Uruguay (draw 26.5%). The Elo gap is substantial at 273 points in Spain's favour, reflecting a clear strength differential in recent form. A Group H fixture with advance probabilities of 99.7% for Spain and 93.9% for Uruguay.
Tactical matchup
Spain (possession dominant) meet Uruguay (balanced) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. Spain typically dominate possession (68%) compared to Uruguay's 49% — the ball-control asymmetry could define this match.
Key battlegrounds
Spain need to control tempo through midfield — their possession-based approach depends on dictating rhythm. The individual battle features Mikel Oyarzabal (P(scores) 9.1%) against Darwin Núñez (2.9%) — their impact could prove decisive. Uruguay play a more direct game while Spain build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.
Situational factors
Injury watch: Spain's Lamine Yamal is recovering — availability remains uncertain.
Match storyline
The model and FIFA ranking diverge significantly on Spain (8.6 percentage points) — this fixture tests whether the model's contrarian assessment holds.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Spain or Uruguay.
- Stage:
- Group H · Matchday 3
Both sides have a number of squad members listed as doubtful for this fixture, with one team particularly affected by key absences; unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.
Die Kalibrierung nach Abpfiff ist kostenlos. Wenn dieses Spiel endet, wird die Zusammenfassung Prognose vs. Ergebnis veröffentlicht: Vor-Spiel-Wahrscheinlichkeit gegenüber dem tatsächlichen Ausgang, Brier score, Log Loss und finale xG vs. prognostizierte xG, auf der Zusammenfassungsseite, offen für alle.
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Spain v Uruguay plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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