Group E · Matchday 1
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Germany will dominate the ball. Whether Curaçao can stay organised through long spells without it determines if Germany's possession converts to chances. Germany will expect to hold 64% possession. Curaçao need their shape to stay compact without the ball and be clinical when they win it back.
What decides it
Germany's possession game (64% avg) requires patience in the final third and quick ball recovery when they lose it. The scoring threat is evenly split: Niclas Füllkrug (6.5%) and Jürgen Locadia (8.8%).
Off the pitch
Germany travel 8,484km, 3x Curaçao's journey. Second-half fatigue is a real factor at that differential.
The angle
The model gives Curaçao just 2.8% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Germany or Curaçao.
- Stage:
- Group E · Matchday 1
- Date:
- 14 Jun
Germany and Curaçao both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Germany minus Curaçao: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- GoalF. Nmecha· F. WirtzF. Nmecha scores for Germany.6'
- 21'GoalL. ComenenciaL. Comenencia scores for Curaçao.
- GoalN. Schlotterbeck· N. BrownN. Schlotterbeck scores for Germany.38'
- Penalty scoredK. HavertzK. Havertz converts from the spot for Germany.45'+5
- 46'SubstitutionS. Hansen· J. AntonisseCuraçao change: J. Antonisse.
- GoalJ. Musiala· J. KimmichJ. Musiala scores for Germany.47'
- SubstitutionJ. Musiala· D. UndavGermany change: D. Undav.64'
- 65'SubstitutionJ. Locadia· J. MargarithaCuraçao change: J. Margaritha.
- GoalN. Brown· D. UndavN. Brown scores for Germany.68'
- SubstitutionJ. Tah· A. RudigerGermany change: A. Rudiger.73'
- SubstitutionF. Nmecha· L. GoretzkaGermany change: L. Goretzka.73'
- SubstitutionN. Brown· D. RaumGermany change: D. Raum.73'
- GoalD. Undav· J. KimmichD. Undav scores for Germany.78'
- 83'SubstitutionT. Chong· G. KastaneerCuraçao change: G. Kastaneer.
- SubstitutionJ. Kimmich· W. AntonGermany change: W. Anton.83'
- GoalK. Havertz· D. UndavK. Havertz scores for Germany.88'
Player involvement
Germany
Curaçao
Pre-match forecast
goals
Die veröffentlichte Wahrscheinlichkeit für dieses Spiel wird bei der Aufstellungsbestätigung (≈1 Stunde vor Anpfiff) festgeschrieben und ändert sich danach nicht mehr. An dieser Zahl wird der Rückblick nach Abpfiff gemessen. Die Live-Siegwahrscheinlichkeit im Live-Bereich ist eine separate, verzögerte, beschreibende Schätzung; sie ersetzt die veröffentlichte Prognose nicht.
Most likely scorelines
- 3–012.7%
- 4–012.2%
- 2–09.8%
- 5–09.4%
- 6–06.1%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Germany win· realised83.5%
- Draw13.1%
- Curaçao win3.4%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.