Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

Group H · Matchday 2

Cape VerdevsUruguay

·18:00 local

Snapshot · 2026-05-28تشكيلة Cape Verde →تشكيلة Uruguay →متابعة مباشرة →المواجهات المباشرة →

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Cape Verde or Uruguay.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group H · Matchday 2

Both teams are grappling with significant squad uncertainties, with several key players doubtful for the upcoming fixture; unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.

Match-outcome probability

  • Cape Verde win
    6.7%
  • Draw
    23.2%
  • Uruguay win
    70.1%
Rank checkFIFA ranks Cape Verde #68 in the world; the model ranks them #35 in this tournament field, 33 places higher than the FIFA list suggests. All 48 compared →
CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →

Standard Pass

That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.

The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.

Scoreline distribution

Half-time / full-time

Four models compared

Most likely scorers

Standard Pass

See exactly how Cape Verde v Uruguay plays out

The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.

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كيف يُحسَب هذا. جميع مخرجات عملية الأهداف تستند إلى نموذج Dixon-Coles واحد. انظر المنهجية.

بيانات بتاريخ 2026-05-28