Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

Group H · Matchday 1

SpainvsCape Verde

·12:00 local

Snapshot · 2026-05-28تشكيلة Spain →تشكيلة Cape Verde →متابعة مباشرة →المواجهات المباشرة →

Latest news & match context

Team news
Match conditions
Stage:
Group H · Matchday 1

Squad availability presents some challenges for both teams, with one side particularly impacted by a key player's doubtful status. Unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.

Match-outcome probability

  • Spain win
    85.0%
  • Draw
    12.4%
  • Cape Verde win
    2.5%
Rank checkFIFA ranks Cape Verde #68 in the world; the model ranks them #35 in this tournament field, 33 places higher than the FIFA list suggests. All 48 compared →
CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →

Standard Pass

That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.

The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.

Scoreline distribution

Half-time / full-time

Four models compared

Most likely scorers

Standard Pass

See exactly how Spain v Cape Verde plays out

The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.

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كيف يُحسَب هذا. جميع مخرجات عملية الأهداف تستند إلى نموذج Dixon-Coles واحد. انظر المنهجية.

بيانات بتاريخ 2026-05-28