التوقعات مقابل النتيجة · Group A · Matchday 1

South Korea ضد Czech Republic

2026-06-11

Post-match calibration

2 – 1
South Korea win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • South Korea win· realised
    40.1%
  • Draw
    26.5%
  • Czech Republic win
    33.4%
Brier score
0.540
Log loss
0.914
xG (final / predicted)
2.00 / 1.09 · South Korea
0.84 / 1.21 · Czech Republic
P(realised outcome)
40.1%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Key moments

59'⚽
Goal

L. Krejci (Czech Republic)

V. Coufal

67'⚽
Goal

Hwang In-Beom (South Korea)

Lee Kang-In

77'📺
VAR review

T. Soucek (Czech Republic)

80'⚽
Goal

Oh Hyeon-Gyu (South Korea)

Hwang In-Beom

Match statistics

SOUCZE
62%
Possession
38%
15
Shots
8
6
On target
4
2.00
xG
0.84
4
Corners
5
9
Fouls
16
1
Yellows
0

Scoreline prediction

The actual scoreline (2–1) was outside the model's top 5 predicted outcomes.

#11–113.8%
#20–111.5%
#30–010.6%
#41–010.3%
#51–28.0%

Team performance

South KoreaB+
Passing
In line7/10
Pressing / defence
Below profile4/10
Set pieces
Below profile3/10
Chance creation
Above profile8/10
Shot quality
Above profile9/10
Cohesion
In line7/10
Individual quality
Above profile9/10

The team demonstrated resilience and offensive prowess in securing a comeback victory.

Czech RepublicC
Passing
In line5/10
Pressing / defence
Below profile4/10
Set pieces
Above profile8/10
Chance creation
Above profile7/10
Shot quality
Above profile7/10
Cohesion
Below profile4/10
Individual quality
Above profile7/10

Despite a loss, the team showed flashes of attacking prowess but needs to address defensive lapses.

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

South Korea
8
Kim Seung-gyu

Made several vital stops, including a crucial late save, proving instrumental in securing the win.

2saves
▼

Match timeline

8
Hwang In-beom

Scored South Korea's equalising goal with a precise finish, initiating the comeback.

2goals
▼

Match timeline

8
Oh Hyeon-gyu

Came off the bench to score South Korea's winning goal, securing the comeback victory.

3goals
▼

Match timeline

7
Son Heung-min

Demonstrated significant attacking intent with multiple shots on target, contributing to offensive pressure.

1shots1on target
▼

Match timeline

Czech Republic
8
Czechia #7

Opened the scoring for Czech Republic with a well-executed header from a set-piece.

1goals1headers
▼

Match timeline

Match observations

  • The match was a dynamic contest with both teams creating numerous scoring opportunities.
  • South Korea displayed strong character, achieving a comeback victory after conceding first.
  • Goalkeepers on both sides were instrumental, making crucial interventions throughout the game.
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كيف تقرأ هذا. Brier وlog-loss لمباراة واحدة يحتويان على ضوضاء — المهم هو كيف تتمايز التوقعات عبر مباريات كثيرة. هذا الملخص لكل مباراة هو صف واحد من لوحة المعايرة الإجمالية في /docs/calibration/. الاحتمال قبل المباراة المعروض هنا هو المجمّد قبل الانطلاق؛ لم يُعد تسعيره أثناء اللعب.