Quarter-final · Match 4
ArgentinavsSwitzerland
2026-07-11·20:00 local·Arrowhead Stadium · Kansas CityPredictions finalised
Match signals
Factors that favour each side, from statistical models to group stage form and match conditions. Longer bars = stronger advantage.
Argentina are dominant at 59% vs Switzerland's 14%. Quality, form, and model estimates all point the same way. An upset here would be a major story.
📊What the Models Say
Rates teams by a single strength number updated after every match. Simpler but fast to react. It rates Argentina at 67% to win vs Switzerland at 11%.
Simulates the goal-scoring process using attack and defence strength. The heaviest-weighted model. It rates Argentina at 55% to win vs Switzerland at 17%.
Groups teams by confederation to share information. Helps for teams with fewer matches. It rates Argentina at 53% to win vs Switzerland at 20%.
The published probability after calibration and adjustments. This is what the model says. It rates Argentina at 59% to win vs Switzerland at 14%.
All 3 models agree: Argentina is favoured. When models agree, the signal is stronger.
⚽Tournament Form
Argentina collected 15 points (5W 0D 0L) vs Switzerland's 11 (3W 2D 0L). A stronger tournament record.
Argentina averaged 2.8 goals per match vs Switzerland's 1.8. More firepower coming in.
Switzerland conceded just 0.6 goals/match vs Argentina's 1.0. Tighter at the back.
Argentina's goal difference of +9 is better than Switzerland's +6. They outperformed opponents by more.
📈Momentum
Both teams' ratings moved similarly during the tournament (Argentina +18.6, Switzerland +21.8).
Switzerland's players improved their form ratings during the tournament (+0.0101) vs Argentina (+0.0017). Players trending upward.
🏆Team Quality
Argentina is rated 2113 vs Switzerland's 1889 (gap: 224). That's a very large gap in historical team strength.
The model expects Argentina to create 1.47 expected goals vs Switzerland's 0.69. More and better chances projected.
Switzerland's top 3 starters are harder to replace (avg VORP 0.52) than Argentina's (0.29). More star power in key positions.
Argentina's starters play together at club level more often (0.043 cohesion) than Switzerland's (0.012). More shared understanding on the pitch.
🌍Match Conditions
Switzerland traveled 7,781km vs Argentina's 9,172km. A shorter journey means less fatigue.
Equal rest for both sides (4 days since their last match).
Argentina face a 2h timezone shift vs Switzerland's 7h. Less jet lag disruption.
18 signals across 5 categories. Signal strength reflects how large the gap is between the two teams on each factor. Signals are descriptive, not prescriptive.
Match-outcome probability
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The model's full forecast for this match
The model rates 1–0 as the most likely scoreline (16.2%). The full distribution, scorer probabilities, and tactical breakdown are inside.
Match-outcome probabilities, the most likely scorelines, scorer probabilities, and the in-match paths. The Standard Pass unlocks them for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
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See exactly how Argentina v Switzerland plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
Every forecast graded against the real result, scored on 987 matches since 2014. See the scorecard.
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Latest news & match context
- FIFA World Cup: Refereeing chief denies bias claims in Argentina-Egypt game · Al Jazeera · 9 Jul
- Stage:
- Quarter-final · Match 4
- Date:
- 11 Jul
- Venue:
- Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.
- 1.Elimination stakes: A one-off elimination tie. Motivation, risk appetite and game management under tournament pressure are not model inputs; the forecast rests on team strength and the style matchup.
Both squads look close to full strength going into this match.