Group L · Matchday 1
← 試合前の予測Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Ghana win26.3%
- Draw27.1%
- Panama win46.6%
Analysis
The model gives Panama a moderate advantage at 46.6% versus 26.3% for Ghana (draw 27.1%). The Elo gap is substantial at 234 points in Panama's favour, reflecting a clear strength differential in recent form. Both sides enter with sub-50% advance probabilities in Group L (Ghana 22.7%, Panama 43.1%) — making this a high-stakes fixture for both.
Tactical matchup
Ghana (counter attacker) meet Panama (transition heavy) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest.
Key battlegrounds
Ghana will look to stay compact and strike on the transition — defensive discipline is non-negotiable. Panama will look to stay compact and strike on the transition — defensive discipline is non-negotiable. The individual battle features Jordan Ayew (P(scores) 12.2%) against Alfredo Stephens (7.1%) — their impact could prove decisive. Panama play a more direct game while Ghana build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.
Situational factors
Ghana face a 8,466km journey to the venue versus Panama's 3,905km — acclimatisation and fatigue could factor into the second half. Panama's Thomas Christiansen (6.4 years in post) brings significantly more tenure than Carlos Queiroz (0.4 years) — squad cohesion and tactical familiarity may differ accordingly.
Match storyline
For Jordan Ayew, this may be among the final World Cup fixtures — experience and composure on the biggest stage.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Ghana or Panama.
- Stage:
- Group L · Matchday 1
One side enters this match at full strength, while the other has a single squad concern to manage.
試合後のキャリブレーションは無料です。 この試合の終了後、予測 vs 結果の振り返りを公開します。試合前の確率と実際の結果、Brier score、log loss、実際の xG と予測値を 振り返りページですべての方に無料公開。
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Ghana v Panama plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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