Group A · Matchday 3
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Mexico's high press game meets Czech Republic's counter attacker shape. Czech Republic will concede territory deliberately and look to hit the spaces Mexico's high line leaves behind. Mexico's aggressive press (PPDA 16.1) against Czech Republic's deeper build-up (PPDA 20.4) creates a clear territory question: can Mexico force errors high up, or will Czech Republic play through the press and find space behind it?
What decides it
Mexico press high (PPDA 16.1). If the press doesn't win the ball early, the space behind their back line becomes exposed. Czech Republic will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. Raúl Jiménez carries the marginally higher scoring probability (8.2% vs 4.2%).
Off the pitch
Czech Republic travel 10,015km while Mexico are essentially at home. That journey shows up in second-half intensity.
The angle
A Group A fixture where the result matters more for the standings than the headlines.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Mexico or Czech Republic.
- Stage:
- Group A · Matchday 3
- Date:
- 24 Jun
Mexico
Mexico come in at close to full strength.
Czech Republic
Czech Republic come in at close to full strength.
Mexico and Czech Republic both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Mexico minus Czech Republic: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- GoalM. Chavez Garcia· L. RomoM. Chavez Garcia scores for Mexico.55'
- 56'SubstitutionD. Visinsky· L. ProvodCzech Republic change: L. Provod.
- GoalJ. Quinones· J. SanchezJ. Quinones scores for Mexico.61'
- SubstitutionG. Martinez· S. GimenezMexico change: S. Gimenez.63'
- SubstitutionL. Romo· O. VargasMexico change: O. Vargas.63'
- Yellow cardE. Alvarez· TrippingE. Alvarez is booked — Tripping.64'
- 64'SubstitutionA. Hlozek· P. SchickCzech Republic change: P. Schick.
- 64'SubstitutionT. Holes· T. SoucekCzech Republic change: T. Soucek.
- SubstitutionG. Mora· A. FidalgoMexico change: A. Fidalgo.72'
- SubstitutionR. Rangel· G. OchoaMexico change: G. Ochoa.78'
- SubstitutionM. Chavez Garcia· J. GallardoMexico change: J. Gallardo.78'
- 87'SubstitutionL. Cerv· T. ChoryCzech Republic change: T. Chory.
- 87'SubstitutionT. Soucek· A. SojkaCzech Republic change: A. Sojka.
- GoalA. Fidalgo· R. AlvaradoA. Fidalgo scores for Mexico.90'+4
Player involvement
Mexico
Pre-match forecast
goals
La probabilité publiée pour ce match est fixée à la confirmation des compositions (≈1 heure avant le coup d'envoi) et ne change plus ensuite. C'est le chiffre dont le bilan d'après-match rend compte. La probabilité de victoire en direct de la section Live est une estimation distincte, différée et descriptive ; elle ne remplace pas la prévision publiée.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.8%
- 1–012.9%
- 0–011.4%
- 0–19.3%
- 2–08.9%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.