Group K · Matchday 2
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Portugal will dominate the ball. Whether Uzbekistan can stay organised through long spells without it determines if Portugal's possession converts to chances. Portugal will expect to hold 59% possession. Uzbekistan need their shape to stay compact without the ball and be clinical when they win it back.
What decides it
Portugal's possession game (59% avg) requires patience in the final third and quick ball recovery when they lose it. Cristiano Ronaldo's 11.1% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Uzbekistan's primary defensive task.
Off the pitch
No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.
The angle
The model gives Uzbekistan just 12.6% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Portugal or Uzbekistan.
- Stage:
- Group K · Matchday 2
- Date:
- 23 Jun
Portugal
Portugal come in at close to full strength.
Uzbekistan
Uzbekistan come in at close to full strength.
Portugal and Uzbekistan both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Portugal minus Uzbekistan: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- GoalC. Ronaldo· J. CanceloC. Ronaldo scores for Portugal.6'
- 14'Yellow cardO. Khamrobekov· HoldingO. Khamrobekov is booked — Holding.
- GoalN. MendesN. Mendes scores for Portugal.17'
- 29'VAR reviewA. GanievVAR review under way.
- GoalC. Ronaldo· B. FernandesC. Ronaldo scores for Portugal.39'
- SubstitutionJ. Cancelo· N. SemedoPortugal change: N. Semedo.46'
- SubstitutionP. Neto· F. ConceicaoPortugal change: F. Conceicao.46'
- 46'SubstitutionS. Nasrullaev· K. AlizhonovUzbekistan change: K. Alizhonov.
- 46'SubstitutionO. Khamrobekov· A. MozgovoyUzbekistan change: A. Mozgovoy.
- Own goalA. NematovA. Nematov turns it into their own net — credited to Uzbekistan.60'
- SubstitutionJoao Felix· TrincaoPortugal change: Trincao.64'
- Yellow cardR. Veiga· RoughingR. Veiga is booked — Roughing.68'
- 73'SubstitutionA. Fayzullaev· I. SergeevUzbekistan change: I. Sergeev.
- SubstitutionJ. Neves· B. SilvaPortugal change: B. Silva.76'
- SubstitutionVitinha· R. LeaoPortugal change: R. Leao.83'
- GoalR. LeaoR. Leao scores for Portugal.87'
- 90'+2SubstitutionB. Karimov· R. JiyanovUzbekistan change: R. Jiyanov.
- 90'+2SubstitutionO. Shukurov· S. EsanovUzbekistan change: S. Esanov.
Player involvement
Portugal
Uzbekistan
Pre-match forecast
goals
La probabilité publiée pour ce match est fixée à la confirmation des compositions (≈1 heure avant le coup d'envoi) et ne change plus ensuite. C'est le chiffre dont le bilan d'après-match rend compte. La probabilité de victoire en direct de la section Live est une estimation distincte, différée et descriptive ; elle ne remplace pas la prévision publiée.
Most likely scorelines
- 2–016.9%
- 1–015.3%
- 3–012.1%
- 2–17.9%
- 1–17.7%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.