Group I · Matchday 1
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Both sides run a balanced system, so this becomes a test of who executes the same ideas better on the day. Norway will expect to hold 56% possession. Iraq need their shape to stay compact without the ball and be clinical when they win it back.
What decides it
Erling Haaland's 13.2% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Iraq's primary defensive task.
Off the pitch
Ståle Solbakken (6 years in charge of Norway) vs Graham Arnold (1 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.
The angle
The model gives Iraq just 13.1% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Iraq or Norway.
- Stage:
- Group I · Matchday 1
- Date:
- 16 Jun
Iraq and Norway both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Iraq minus Norway: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- 29'GoalE. Haaland· D. WolfeE. Haaland scores for Norway.
- GoalA. Hussein· A. Al AmmariA. Hussein scores for Iraq.39'
- 43'GoalE. HaalandE. Haaland scores for Norway.
- SubstitutionZ. Ismaeel· Z. IqbalIraq change: Z. Iqbal.59'
- SubstitutionA. Al Hamadi· M. FarjiIraq change: M. Farji.59'
- 73'SubstitutionA. Nusa· A. SchjelderupNorway change: A. Schjelderup.
- 73'SubstitutionF. Aursnes· K. ThorstvedtNorway change: K. Thorstvedt.
- 73'SubstitutionD. Wolfe· L. OstigardNorway change: L. Ostigard.
- 73'SubstitutionA. Sorloth· O. BobbNorway change: O. Bobb.
- SubstitutionH. Ali· M. SaadoonIraq change: M. Saadoon.73'
- SubstitutionA. Jasim· A. QasemIraq change: A. Qasem.73'
- 76'GoalL. Ostigard· M. OdegaardL. Ostigard scores for Norway.
- SubstitutionI. Bayesh· MemeIraq change: Meme.78'
- 81'SubstitutionM. Odegaard· P. BergNorway change: P. Berg.
- Yellow cardZ. Tahseen· HoldingZ. Tahseen is booked — Holding.86'
- 90'+6Own goalA. HusseinA. Hussein turns it into their own net — credited to Iraq.
Player involvement
Iraq
Norway
Pre-match forecast
goals
La probabilité publiée pour ce match est fixée à la confirmation des compositions (≈1 heure avant le coup d'envoi) et ne change plus ensuite. C'est le chiffre dont le bilan d'après-match rend compte. La probabilité de victoire en direct de la section Live est une estimation distincte, différée et descriptive ; elle ne remplace pas la prévision publiée.
Most likely scorelines
- 0–114.8%
- 0–214.7%
- 1–19.9%
- 0–39.4%
- 1–28.9%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Iraq win13.3%
- Draw24.5%
- Norway win· realised62.2%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.