Group G · Matchday 1
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Neither side has a rigid tactical identity. Both adapt to the opponent, so the first 15 minutes will reveal who imposes their plan first.
What decides it
Egypt adjust shape to the opponent. That flexibility is an asset, but it takes longer to settle into a game. Mohamed Salah's 13.7% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Belgium's primary defensive task.
Off the pitch
No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.
The angle
Likely the last World Cup for Axel Witsel. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Belgium or Egypt.
- Stage:
- Group G · Matchday 1
- Date:
- 15 Jun
Belgium and Egypt both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Belgium minus Egypt: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- 13'Yellow cardM. Attia· TrippingM. Attia is booked — Tripping.
- Yellow cardT. Castagne· HoldingT. Castagne is booked — Holding.14'
- 19'GoalE. Ashour· M. SalahE. Ashour scores for Egypt.
- 34'Yellow cardA. Fatouh· TrippingA. Fatouh is booked — Tripping.
- SubstitutionT. Castagne· N. RaskinBelgium change: N. Raskin.56'
- SubstitutionA. Onana· M. De CuyperBelgium change: M. De Cuyper.56'
- SubstitutionC. De Ketelaere· R. LukakuBelgium change: R. Lukaku.66'
- Own goalM. HanyM. Hany turns it into their own net — credited to Egypt.66'
- 71'SubstitutionE. Ashour· R. RabiaEgypt change: R. Rabia.
- Yellow cardM. De Cuyper· HoldingM. De Cuyper is booked — Holding.75'
- 76'SubstitutionM. Ziko· ZizoEgypt change: Zizo.
- 76'SubstitutionM. Salah· H. AbdelkarimEgypt change: H. Abdelkarim.
- SubstitutionJ. Doku· M. Fernandez-PardoBelgium change: M. Fernandez-Pardo.86'
- SubstitutionK. De Bruyne· H. VanakenBelgium change: H. Vanaken.86'
- 88'SubstitutionH. Fathy· I. AdelEgypt change: I. Adel.
- 88'SubstitutionA. Fatouh· K. HafezEgypt change: K. Hafez.
Player involvement
Belgium
Egypt
Pre-match forecast
goals
La probabilité publiée pour ce match est fixée à la confirmation des compositions (≈1 heure avant le coup d'envoi) et ne change plus ensuite. C'est le chiffre dont le bilan d'après-match rend compte. La probabilité de victoire en direct de la section Live est une estimation distincte, différée et descriptive ; elle ne remplace pas la prévision publiée.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–016.6%
- 0–012.8%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–012.4%
- 2–18.5%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Belgium win57.1%
- Draw· realised25.8%
- Egypt win17.1%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.