Group D · Matchday 1
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Turkey's pragmatic setup will need to hold shape against Australia's direct transition game. The risk for Turkey: getting caught between attacking and defending. Turkey's aggressive press (PPDA 23.5) against Australia's deeper build-up (PPDA 37.0) creates a clear territory question: can Turkey force errors high up, or will Australia play through the press and find space behind it?
What decides it
Australia will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. Turkey adjust shape to the opponent. That flexibility is an asset, but it takes longer to settle into a game. The scoring threat is evenly split: Brandon Borrello (4.6%) and Hakan Çalhanoğlu (7.4%).
Off the pitch
No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.
The angle
A Group D fixture where the result matters more for the standings than the headlines.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Australia or Turkey.
- Stage:
- Group D · Matchday 1
- Date:
- 13 Jun
Australia
Australia come in at close to full strength.
Turkey
Turkey come in at close to full strength.
Australia and Turkey both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Australia minus Turkey: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- GoalN. Irankunda· P. Okon-EngstlerN. Irankunda scores for Australia.27'
- 46'SubstitutionB. Yilmaz· K. YildizTurkey change: K. Yildiz.
- SubstitutionN. Irankunda· N. VelupillayAustralia change: N. Velupillay.61'
- 62'SubstitutionO. Kokcu· Y. AkgunTurkey change: Y. Akgun.
- SubstitutionM. Toure· T. YengiAustralia change: T. Yengi.74'
- SubstitutionJ. Italiano· J. GeriaAustralia change: J. Geria.74'
- GoalC. MetcalfeC. Metcalfe scores for Australia.75'
- 81'SubstitutionI. Yuksek· S. OzcanTurkey change: S. Ozcan.
- 81'SubstitutionZ. Celik· M. MuldurTurkey change: M. Muldur.
- SubstitutionJ. Bos· A. BehichAustralia change: A. Behich.84'
- SubstitutionP. Okon-Engstler· J. IrvineAustralia change: J. Irvine.84'
- 85'SubstitutionK. Akturkoglu· D. GulTurkey change: D. Gul.
- 86'Yellow cardY. Akgun· RoughingY. Akgun is booked — Roughing.
Player involvement
Australia
Turkey
Pre-match forecast
goals
La probabilité publiée pour ce match est fixée à la confirmation des compositions (≈1 heure avant le coup d'envoi) et ne change plus ensuite. C'est le chiffre dont le bilan d'après-match rend compte. La probabilité de victoire en direct de la section Live est une estimation distincte, différée et descriptive ; elle ne remplace pas la prévision publiée.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–114.2%
- 0–011.8%
- 1–011.5%
- 0–111.2%
- 2–17.5%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Australia win· realised35.4%
- Draw26.0%
- Turkey win38.6%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.