Nota de investigación

Predicting goalscorers: breaking down shot volume and shot quality

Estado: Shipped (no ensemble-gate ablation — this is a surface-quality refactor, not a calibration shot)Fecha del backtest: 24 May 2026Resumen + nota completa · 1,650 palabras

Resumen

The legacy anytime-scorer rate input was a single per-90 aggregate: npxG_per_90 = total_npxG / nineties, drawn from each player's most recent ≥500-minute club season. That collapses two distinct signals — how often the player shoots (volume) and how dangerous each shot is (quality) — into one number, which mis-rates two specific edge cases:

  1. Low-volume, high-per-shot outliers. A defender who took 3 shots in a season and happened to convert at 0.40 npxG/shot extrapolates to a wil…

Nota completa

Standard Pass

Lee la nota de investigación completa

Predicting goalscorers: breaking down shot volume and shot quality tiene 1,650 palabras. El Standard Pass desbloquea todas las notas de investigación completas, más el pronóstico completo y las valoraciones por selección y por jugador, válido durante todo el torneo.

Consigue el Pass — 15 $ →

Every forecast graded against the real result, scored on 987 matches since 2014. See the scorecard.

24h money-back, no questions asked·No subscription, no auto-renewal·Access through 31 Dec 2026. See refund policy.