Group K · Matchday 3
← Pronóstico previo al partidoLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- DR Congo win28.5%
- Draw31.3%
- Uzbekistan win40.3%
Analysis
Uzbekistan carry a slight probability advantage at 40.3% versus 28.5% for DR Congo (draw 31.3%). The Elo ratings are within 72 points of each other — a tight matchup on recent form. Both sides enter with sub-50% advance probabilities in Group K (DR Congo 27.6%, Uzbekistan 38.8%) — making this a high-stakes fixture for both.
Tactical matchup
DR Congo (counter attacker) meet Uzbekistan (balanced) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest.
Key battlegrounds
DR Congo will look to stay compact and strike on the transition — defensive discipline is non-negotiable. The individual battle features Yoane Wissa (P(scores) 10.9%) against Eldor Shomurodov (3.8%) — their impact could prove decisive.
Situational factors
DR Congo's Sébastien Desabre (4.4 years in post) brings significantly more tenure than Fabio Cannavaro (1.4 years) — squad cohesion and tactical familiarity may differ accordingly.
Match storyline
Two sides ranked within 4 places of each other in the model's tournament hierarchy — the fixture is tight on paper and likely to be tight on the pitch.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for DR Congo or Uzbekistan.
- Stage:
- Group K · Matchday 3
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La calibración post-partido es gratuita. Cuando este partido termine, el resumen de pronóstico frente a resultado (probabilidad previa frente al resultado real, Brier score, log loss y xG final frente a predicho) se publicará en la página de resumen, abierta para todos.
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
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See exactly how DR Congo v Uzbekistan plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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