Chris Wood

New Zealand has qualified for three World Cups. In 2010, they drew all three group matches and went home unbeaten but eliminated. Chris Wood was 18 and not in the squad. Fourteen years later, he is the reason they are back: 88 caps, 45 goals, the all-time leading scorer in the country's history by a distance, and the only player in this squad who plays in one of Europe's top five leagues.

At Nottingham Forest he has been a dependable Premier League striker for years, the kind of player who does not make highlight reels but finishes the season with double-digit goals more often than not. His composite rating (0.693) is the highest in the New Zealand squad by a wide margin, and the gap between him and the next-best outfield player tells the story of how much this team depends on one man.

Iran are heavy favourites today and the model sees New Zealand as the weakest team on the June 15 card. But Wood has scored at a rate that would be respectable for any international striker, and New Zealand have nothing to lose. For a country that plays rugby and cricket before football, every minute on the World Cup stage is a bonus, and Wood is the player who put them there.