Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

Group D · Matchday 3

United StatesvsTurkey

·19:00 local

历史交锋记录

DateCompetitionVenueScoreResultxG
7 Jun 2025FriendlyHEast Hartford12L
1 Jun 2014FriendlyHHarrison21W
29 May 2010FriendlyHPhiladelphia21W
19 Jun 2003Confederations CupNSaint-Étienne12L
4 Sep 1991FriendlyAIstanbul11D

United States vs Turkey, every senior international meeting in the martj42 results dataset (score from United States's perspective; H/A/N = home/away/neutral).

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for United States or Turkey.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group D · Matchday 3

Both sides face potential attacking absences, with the full breakdown available to Pass holders.

Match-outcome probability

  • United States win
    30.8%
  • Draw
    25.8%
  • Turkey win
    43.5%
Rank checkFIFA ranks United States #14 in the world; the model ranks them #28 in this tournament field, 14 places lower than the FIFA list suggests. All 48 compared →

Standard Pass

That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.

The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.

Scoreline distribution

Half-time / full-time

Four models compared

Most likely scorers

Standard Pass

See exactly how United States v Turkey plays out

The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.

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计算方法。 所有进球过程输出共用同一个 Dixon-Coles 拟合模型。详见 方法论.

数据截至 2026-05-28