Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

Group C · Matchday 3

BrazilvsScotland

·18:00 local

Snapshot · 2026-05-28Model 1.0.0Brazil 阵容 →Scotland 阵容 →实时追踪 →历史交锋 →

历史交锋记录

DateCompetitionVenueScoreResultxG
27 Mar 2011FriendlyNLondon2–0W—
10 Jun 1998FIFA World CupNSaint-Denis2–1W—
20 Jun 1990FIFA World CupNTurin1–0W—
26 May 1987Rous CupAGlasgow2–0W—
18 Jun 1982FIFA World CupNSeville4–1W—
23 Jun 1977FriendlyHRio de Janeiro2–0W—

Brazil vs Scotland, every senior international meeting in the martj42 results dataset (score from Brazil's perspective; H/A/N = home/away/neutral). See all 10 meetings →

Latest news & match context

Team news
Match conditions
Stage:
Group C · Matchday 3

Both sides face significant squad availability concerns ahead of this match; unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.

Match-outcome probability

  • Brazil win
    70.1%
  • Draw
    20.5%
  • Scotland win
    9.4%
CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →

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That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.

The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.

Scoreline distribution

Half-time / full-time

Four models compared

Most likely scorers

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See exactly how Brazil v Scotland plays out

The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.

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计算方法。 所有进球过程输出共用同一个 Dixon-Coles 拟合模型。详见 方法论.

数据截至 2026-05-28