Spain
Snapshot · 2026-07-14Model 1.0.0UEFA·H 组·FIFA #1
Possession-dominant side led by Ferran Torres, with Unai Simón in goal and a Barcelona-heavy spine.
近期阵型: 4-3-3 (4 场中的 4 场)
- 对手
- Uruguay (#16)
- 关键
- Mikel Oyarzabal (FW)
Final squad announced · Spain · 2026-06-01
Source: Footy Headlines ↗WC2026 results
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 15 | Cape Verde | 0–0 | D | Atlanta |
| Jun 21 | Saudi Arabia | 4–0 | W | Atlanta |
| Jun 26 | Uruguay | 1–0 | W | Zapopan |
| Jul 2 | Austria | 3–0 | W | Los Angeles |
| Jul 6 | Portugal | 1–0 | W | Dallas |
| Jul 10 | Belgium | 2–1 | W | Los Angeles |
赛事前瞻
Analysis
Spain are among the tournament frontrunners — the model rates them at 16.7%, 2nd in the field. Watch for Lamine Yamal — 18 at kickoff — 25 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick. Drawn in Group H alongside Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde, they are projected at 99.7% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Spain under Luis de la Fuente play a possession dominant game, holding 68% of the ball — among the highest in the tournament field. Their likely shape is a 4-3-3. They press intensely (PPDA 15.7, top quartile (4th of 40)) and build patiently through midfield with 10.0 passes per attacking sequence. They generate a high volume of shots (15.3 per 90).
Path to success
Their route begins in Group H with Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde, where the model projects a 77.5% chance of finishing top and 99.7% of advancing. From there the projected knockout path runs: round of 32 (72.7%), quarter-finals (51.0%), semi-finals (39.2%), the final (26.9%). Maintaining form across seven matches in North American conditions will test squad depth — no team has won consecutive World Cups since Brazil in 1962.
What they must execute
To succeed, Spain must control tempo and territory in midfield — their possession-dominant approach depends on dictating the rhythm of each match.
Controversial take
The model rates Spain significantly higher than their FIFA ranking implies — a gap of 8.6 percentage points. This reflects the model's assessment of underlying squad quality and recent form that the ranking system may lag behind.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Possession-dominant · style profile from 21 recent matches
What to watch: patient, multi-pass build-up.
Percentiles position Spain against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group H finish · Spain
Monte Carlo, 100,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 72.5%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 23.2%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 3.6%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 0.6%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Spain
, 100,000 sims- 98.9%AdvAdvance from group
- 72.8%R16Round of 16
- 52.1%QFQuarter-final
- 39.6%SFSemi-final
- 27.1%FFinal
- 17.2%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Spain
Monte Carlo, 10,000 sims球队阵容
Confirmed squad
Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
- Pairwise club minutes
- 1.83%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 0.140
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 50%
- 5 of 10 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Manchester City2
- Barcelona2
- Athletic Club1
Most-connected club pair
Marcos Llorente + Álvaro Morata — Atletico Madrid, 2023-24 · 1,924 shared minutes
Show next 2
- Dani Olmo + Ferran Torres — Barcelona, 2024-25 · 1,093 min
- Aymeric Laporte + Rodri — Manchester City, 2023-24 · 6 min
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Dani OlmoAttacking midfieldLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level AM ~0.400.51gap to repl.
- RodriDefensive midfieldLikely cover: Martín Zubimendi · 0.39Arsenal0.27gap to repl.
- Ferran TorresStrikerLikely cover: Borja Iglesias · 0.65Celta Vigo0.26gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
小组赛赛程
Group-stage schedule
| MD | Date | Opponent | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 15, 2026 | Cape Verde | Atlanta, United States |
| 2 | Jun 21, 2026 | Saudi Arabia | Atlanta, United States |
| 3 | Jun 26, 2026 | Uruguay | Zapopan, Mexico |
历史交锋记录
看点
Storylines
Updated 49 days ago8 of 26 predicted-squad players play their club football for Barcelona — a single-club spine on the international side.
Squad averages 1.85 xG per match across club football last season — #3 of 20 in the field for attacking pedigree from each player's domestic side (23 of 26 players matched to a known club).
18 at kickoff — 25 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.
Model's top anytime-scorer for the team — 32% probability of scoring at least once, rank #3 of all players.
近期状态与历史战绩
Video analysis: Spain
Performance data from official highlights analysis across 5 matches. 32 players observed, 64 events tracked.
Scored one goal and assisted another, proving instrumental in two of Spain's goals.
1 goalPlayer ratings (32)
9Ferran1 app · 3 events1 goal9▼
Scored one goal and assisted another, proving instrumental in two of Spain's goals.
8Borja Mayoral1 app · 1 events1 goal8▼
Scored Spain's second goal by arriving in the box with excellent timing and a well-placed finish.
7.5Marc Cucurella4 apps · 5 events1 goal1 shot (1 on target)1 header7788▼
Was a constant threat down the left flank, delivering crosses and taking a shot on goal.
7.5Pedri2 apps · 4 events1 goal1 shot (1 on target)1 header78▼
Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.
7.5Yéremy Pino1 app7.5▼
Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.
7.5Nico Williams1 app7.5▼
Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.
7.5Pedro Porro2 apps78▼
Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.
7.5Borja Iglesias1 app7.5▼
Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.
7.2Lamine Yamal2 apps · 2 events1 goal1 shot (1 on target)7.57▼
Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.
7.1Mikel Oyarzabal4 apps · 14 events1 goal7 shots (1 on target)3 headers57.588▼
Had numerous opportunities and hit the crossbar but was also dispossessed in a dangerous area and failed to convert.
7.1Dani Olmo4 apps · 3 events2 shots (1 on target)67.578▼
Created a late scoring chance for a teammate through his movement.
7Mikel Merino3 apps · 7 events1 goal3 shots (1 on target)1 header678▼
Had a shot on goal that was blocked, but otherwise had limited notable actions.
7Álex Baena2 apps · 4 events1 goal2 shots (1 on target)77▼
Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.
7Aymeric Laporte3 apps · 6 events3 shots (2 on target)2 headers777▼
Was a threat from set-pieces and long-range, and maintained defensive solidity.
7Unai Simón1 app7▼
Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.
7Rodri1 app7▼
Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.
7Gavi1 app7▼
Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.
7Eric García1 app7▼
Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.
7David Raya1 app7▼
Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.
7Álex Grimaldo1 app7▼
Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.
7Pau Cubarsí1 app7▼
Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.
7Martín Zubimendi1 app7▼
Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.
7Joan Garcia1 app7▼
Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.
7Marc Pubill1 app7▼
Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.
7Víctor Muñoz1 app7▼
Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.
7M. ARAUJO1 app7▼
Displayed composure in possession and actively contributed to Spain's offensive build-up from the back.
7Unai Simon1 app7▼
Made vital saves from high-profile attempts by Ronaldo and Vitinha, contributing to Spain's strong defensive performance.
6.8Ferran Torres2 apps · 7 events5 shots (3 on target)2 headers67.5▼
Created several scoring opportunities and hit the woodwork but failed to convert any chances.
6.7Fabián Ruiz3 apps · 3 events3 shots (1 on target)677▼
Attempted two shots but failed to hit the target, with limited other notable contributions.
6.5Marcos Llorente2 apps · 1 events67▼
6Roberto Lopez1 app · 3 events1 shot (1 on target)1 header6▼
Registered a header on target from a cross.
6Oyarzabal1 app · 1 events1 shot (1 on target)6▼
Contributed to early attacking pressure with a shot on target but had no further notable impact mentioned.
Match observations
- gs-015Spain maintained significant possession and generated numerous scoring opportunities throughout the contest.
- gs-015Cabo Verde displayed a resilient defensive performance, with their goalkeeper Vozinha being particularly instrumental in thwarting Spain's efforts.
- gs-015The match concluded in a goalless draw, a commendable result for Cabo Verde against a strong opponent.
- gs-039The video captures the post-match atmosphere outside the stadium, with fans of both Spain and Saudi Arabia departing. The scoreboard overlay indicates a decisive 4-0 victory for Spain over Saudi Arabia. Supporters are seen walking in large groups, some wearing team colours and scarves, reflecting the general mood after the final whistle.
- gs-063Spain delivered a dominant performance, showcasing their attacking flair and control of the midfield.
- gs-063Austria's goalkeeper, Alexander Schlager, was a standout performer, making numerous saves to prevent a larger deficit.
- gs-063Spain's persistent pressure and intricate passing eventually broke down the Austrian defense, leading to three well-taken goals.
- r16-005This was a fiercely contested match with both teams creating numerous scoring opportunities.
- r16-005Spain demonstrated a persistent attacking approach, eventually breaking the deadlock after several attempts.
- r16-005Portugal, despite moments of individual brilliance and set-piece danger, struggled to convert their chances into goals.
- r32-012Spain secured a dominant 3-0 victory over Austria in a match where they consistently created scoring opportunities.
- r32-012Despite an early disallowed goal, Spain maintained their attacking intensity and found their rhythm in front of goal.
- r32-012Austria's goalkeeper, Alexander Schlager, was a standout performer, making numerous saves to limit the scoreline.
Statistical profile
Possession DominantAttack
Defence
GK: Unai Simón
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: light
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 21 matches (Euro2020,Euro2024,WC2018,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24Spain trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 2165.0 to 2165.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 20.6% to 15.0% (−5.6pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | HEgypt | 0–0 | D | Friendly |
| 2026-03-27 | HSerbia | 3–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-11-18 | HTurkey | 2–2 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-11-15 | AGeorgia | 4–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-14 | HBulgaria | 4–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-11 | HGeorgia | 2–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-07 | ATurkey | 6–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-04 | ABulgaria | 3–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-08 | NPortugal | 2–2 | D | UEFA Nations League |
| 2025-06-05 | NFrance | 5–4 | W | UEFA Nations League |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Uruguay | 10 | 5-5-0 | 2013 — Win (2–1) · Confederations Cup |
| Saudi Arabia | 4 | 4-0-0 | 2026 — Win (4–0) · FIFA World Cup |
| Cape Verde | 1 | 0-1-0 | 2026 — Draw (0–0) · FIFA World Cup |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UEFA Euro | 2024 | Champion | 7-0-0 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2022 | Round of 16 | 1-2-1 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
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