Ivory Coast
Snapshot · 2026-06-11Model 1.0.0CAF·E 组·FIFA #42
Possession-dominant side.
- 对手
- Germany (#9)
- 关键
- Franck Kessié (MF)
赛事前瞻
Analysis
Ivory Coast carry a 0.1% probability of winning the tournament (31st of 48). Watch for Yan Diomande — 19 at kickoff — 9 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick. Drawn in Group E alongside Germany, Ecuador, Curaçao, they are projected at 72.9% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Ivory Coast under Emerse Faé play a possession dominant game, holding 58% of the ball — among the highest in the tournament field. They press intensely (PPDA 13.7, 2nd in the field).
Path to success
In Group E alongside Germany, Ecuador, Curaçao, Ivory Coast are projected at 72.9% to advance from the group stage. Qualification to the knockout rounds is the primary target. The round of 32 probability sits at 27.4%. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.
What they must execute
To succeed, Ivory Coast must control tempo and territory in midfield — their possession-dominant approach depends on dictating the rhythm of each match.
Controversial take
The model and FIFA rankings tell different stories for Ivory Coast. Model rates them #30 by tournament-winner probability — 12 places higher than FIFA #42.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Possession-dominant · style profile from 7 recent matches
What to watch: one of the more intense presses in the field.
Percentiles position Ivory Coast against the 48-team field — higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group E finish · Ivory Coast
Monte Carlo, 50,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 9.6%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 24.3%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 53.2%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 12.9%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Ivory Coast
, 50,000 sims- 71.5%AdvAdvance from group
- 27.3%R16Round of 16
- 8.6%QFQuarter-final
- 2.5%SFSemi-final
- 0.6%FFinal
- 0.2%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Ivory Coast
Monte Carlo, 10,000 sims球队阵容
Predicted squad
Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28No jersey numbers assigned in the underlying source. The 26 below are picked by the model from the team's recent call-up pool.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
Low coverage: 4/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.
- Pairwise club minutes
- 0.00%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 0.250
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 75%
- 3 of 4 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Angers1
- Roma1
- Nottingham Forest1
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Oumar DiakitéStrikerLikely cover: Elye Wahi · 0.00Nice0.67gap to repl.
- Ousmane DiomandeCentre-backLikely cover: Emmanuel Agbadou · 0.73Beşiktaş0.23gap to repl.
- Ibrahim SangaréDefensive midfieldLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level DM ~0.240.22gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
小组赛赛程
Group-stage schedule
历史交锋记录
看点
Storylines
Updated 14 days agoGained 87 international Elo points over the last 12 months — current rating 1795.
19 at kickoff — 9 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.
First World Cup as head coach, appointed 2024.
Model rates them #30 by tournament-winner probability — 12 places higher than FIFA #42.
近期状态与历史战绩
Statistical profile
Possession DominantAttack
Defence
GK: Alban Lafont
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: light
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 7 matches (AFCON2023). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
10 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-10Ivory Coast trajectory: 10 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-10 (19 days). Elo moved from 1676.0 to 1676.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.1% to 0.1% (0pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | NScotland | 1–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2026-03-28 | NSouth Korea | 4–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2026-01-10 | NEgypt | 2–3 | L | African Cup of Nations |
| 2026-01-06 | NBurkina Faso | 3–0 | W | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-31 | NGabon | 3–2 | W | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-28 | NCameroon | 1–1 | D | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-24 | NMozambique | 1–0 | W | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-11-18 | AOman | 2–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-11-14 | ASaudi Arabia | 0–1 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-10-14 | HKenya | 3–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 1 | 0-1-0 | 2009 — Draw (2–2) · Friendly |
| Curaçao | 0 | — | No prior meetings |
| Ecuador | 0 | — | No prior meetings |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| African Cup of Nations | 2026 | 2 matches | 1-0-1 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2014 | Group stage | 1-0-2 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
Cameroon · World Cup 1998
Exited at the group stage
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1683) and group draw.
Tunisia · World Cup 2018
Exited at the group stage
South Africa · Afcon 2015
Exited at the group stage