Round of 16 · Match 6
Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
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- Stage:
- Round of 16 · Match 6
- Date:
- 6 Jul
- Venue:
- Lumen Field, Seattle
Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.
- 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads, 1 of them projected starters. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
- 2.Elimination stakes: A one-off elimination tie. Motivation, risk appetite and game management under tournament pressure are not model inputs; the forecast rests on team strength and the style matchup.
- 3.Rest differential: Belgium have had 5 days since their previous match versus 4 for United States. Rest and recovery are not model inputs.
1 squad member across the two sides is a fitness watch item — unlock the full availability breakdown and what it means for the forecast with a Pass.
Kalibratieterugblik na afloop is gratis. Wanneer deze wedstrijd afgelopen is, verschijnt de terugblik voorspelling versus resultaat (voorafwaarschijnlijkheid versus werkelijke uitkomst, Brier score, log loss en uiteindelijk xG versus voorspeld) op de terugblikpagina, toegankelijk voor iedereen.
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The model's full forecast for this match
Match-outcome probabilities, the most likely scorelines, scorer probabilities, and the in-match paths. The Standard Pass unlocks them for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how United States v Belgium plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
Every forecast graded against the real result, scored on 987 matches since 2014. See the scorecard.
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