Round of 16 · Match 4
Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
Standard Pass for probabilitiesLatest news & match context
- France v Spain - who would England rather face in the World Cup final? · Daily Mirror — Football · 14 Jul
- England captain Harry Kane hits out at ITV interviewer Gabriel Clarke 'trying to create division' between Thomas Tuchel and Jude Bellingham with his questioning at the World Cup · Daily Mail — Football · 14 Jul
- England World Cup semi-final and final? A reminder of where and when! · Sky Sports — Football · 14 Jul
- England vs. Argentina ticket prices: How much do World Cup semifinal tickets cost? · USA Today · 14 Jul
- World Cup 2026: American Ismail Elfath to referee England v Argentina · BBC · 14 Jul
- Stage:
- Round of 16 · Match 4
- Date:
- 5 Jul
- Venue:
- Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Altitude (2,240 m) and a 18°C kickoff modestly suppresses expected scoring at this venue.
Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.
- 1.Elimination stakes: A one-off elimination tie. Motivation, risk appetite and game management under tournament pressure are not model inputs; the forecast rests on team strength and the style matchup.
- 2.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
1 squad member across the two sides is a fitness watch item — unlock the full availability breakdown and what it means for the forecast with a Pass.
Kalibratieterugblik na afloop is gratis. Wanneer deze wedstrijd afgelopen is, verschijnt de terugblik voorspelling versus resultaat (voorafwaarschijnlijkheid versus werkelijke uitkomst, Brier score, log loss en uiteindelijk xG versus voorspeld) op de terugblikpagina, toegankelijk voor iedereen.
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The model's full forecast for this match
Match-outcome probabilities, the most likely scorelines, scorer probabilities, and the in-match paths. The Standard Pass unlocks them for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
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See exactly how Mexico v England plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
Every forecast graded against the real result, scored on 987 matches since 2014. See the scorecard.
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