Voorspelling versus resultaat · Group F · Matchday 3
Japan vs Sweden
2026-06-25
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Japan win51.5%
- Draw· realised25.7%
- Sweden win22.8%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.
Key moments
Daizen Maeda (Japan)
Ritsu Doan
Anthony Elanga (Sweden)
Viktor Gyökeres
Match statistics
Scoreline prediction
The actual scoreline (1–1) was the model's #1 most likely outcome at 13.4%.
Team performance
The team showed resilience to score first and held their own in an evenly contested match.
The team demonstrated resilience to secure an away draw, suggesting they are in decent form.
Video analysis: player performance
Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.
8Daizen MaedaScored Japan's crucial opening goal with excellent composure and finishing ability.
2goals▼
Scored Japan's crucial opening goal with excellent composure and finishing ability.
Match timeline
6Ao TanakaPositioned himself well for a shot but failed to hit the target, indicating a missed opportunity.
2shots▼
Positioned himself well for a shot but failed to hit the target, indicating a missed opportunity.
Match timeline
6Benjamin NygrenMade a late appearance without any described impact on the match.
▼
Made a late appearance without any described impact on the match.
Match timeline
Match observations
- The match was an evenly contested affair, with both teams creating several opportunities to score.
- Japan initially gained the advantage through a well-executed attacking move, but Sweden responded with a moment of individual brilliance.
- The game featured periods of sustained pressure from both sides, leading to multiple shots on target and crucial saves.