Voorspelling versus resultaat · Group D · Matchday 3
Paraguay vs Australia
2026-06-25
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Paraguay win26.9%
- Draw· realised32.6%
- Australia win40.5%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.
Match statistics
Scoreline prediction
The actual scoreline (0–0) was the model's #1 most likely outcome at 19.5%.
Team performance
Paraguay demonstrated strong resilience and decisive finishing in a historic knockout victory, suggesting good current form.
The team demonstrated resilience to secure a crucial draw and progress in the tournament.
Video analysis: player performance
Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.
8Matías Galarza22'–22'Scored the opening goal for Paraguay from a corner kick, providing a crucial lead.
1goals1headers▼
Scored the opening goal for Paraguay from a corner kick, providing a crucial lead.
Match timeline
8Canale146'–146'Converted the decisive penalty kick to secure Paraguay's victory in the shootout.
1goals▼
Converted the decisive penalty kick to secure Paraguay's victory in the shootout.
Match timeline
8Miguel AlmirónDelivered the crucial corner kick that directly resulted in Paraguay's first goal.
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Delivered the crucial corner kick that directly resulted in Paraguay's first goal.
Match timeline
7AncisioRegistered a shot on target, testing the Australian goalkeeper.
Registered a shot on target, testing the Australian goalkeeper.
7Álex ArceGenerated a strong scoring chance that required a good save from the opponent's goalkeeper.
1shots1on target▼
Generated a strong scoring chance that required a good save from the opponent's goalkeeper.
Match timeline
7VOLPATODemonstrated individual skill with multiple attacking movements and shots on target.
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Demonstrated individual skill with multiple attacking movements and shots on target.
Match timeline
6Mauricio0'–0'Showed willingness to create opportunities by attempting a shot from distance.
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Showed willingness to create opportunities by attempting a shot from distance.
Match timeline
5Gustavo Gómez0'–0'Committed a foul early in the match, which could have led to a dangerous set-piece.
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Committed a foul early in the match, which could have led to a dangerous set-piece.
Match timeline
8Gill101'–125'Made several critical saves in extra time, keeping his team in the match and preventing further goals.
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Made several critical saves in extra time, keeping his team in the match and preventing further goals.
Match timeline
8HillMade several crucial saves throughout the match, maintaining his team's competitive position.
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Made several crucial saves throughout the match, maintaining his team's competitive position.
Match timeline
7Jordan Bos0'–0'Demonstrated attacking intent with a shot on target and drew a foul in a dangerous area.
2shots2on target2fouls won▼
Demonstrated attacking intent with a shot on target and drew a foul in a dangerous area.
Match timeline
7ValpatoMade an effective overlapping run and registered a shot on goal, contributing to the team's attack.
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Made an effective overlapping run and registered a shot on goal, contributing to the team's attack.
Match timeline
7B. GOMEZDemonstrated individual skill with a dribbling move and registered a shot on target from a dangerous position.
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Demonstrated individual skill with a dribbling move and registered a shot on target from a dangerous position.
Match timeline
6Ajdin HrustićAttempted a shot on goal, indicating an effort to contribute offensively.
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Attempted a shot on goal, indicating an effort to contribute offensively.
Match timeline
Match observations
- The match was a hard-fought encounter with both teams creating scoring opportunities.
- Australia's goalkeeper, Hill, was particularly busy, making several key saves to deny Paraguay.
- Despite numerous attempts from both sides, neither team managed to find the back of the net, resulting in a goalless draw.