Voorspelling versus resultaat · Group H · Matchday 2

Spain vs Saudi Arabia

2026-06-21

Post-match calibration

40
Spain win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Spain win· realised
    74.7%
  • Draw
    19.2%
  • Saudi Arabia win
    6.1%
Brier score
0.105
Log loss
0.292
xG (final / predicted)
2.85 / 2.51 · Spain
0.14 / 0.47 · Saudi Arabia
P(realised outcome)
74.7%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Own goalH. Tambakti (49')

Key moments

10'
Goal

Lamine Yamal (Spain)

M. Oyarzabal

21'
Goal

M. Oyarzabal (Spain)

A. Laporte

24'
Goal

M. Oyarzabal (Spain)

D. Olmo

49'
Own goalOG

H. Tambakti (Spain)

90'+2📺
VAR review

F. Torres (Spain)

Match statistics

SpainSAU
67%
Possession
33%
22
Shots
3
8
On target
1
2.85
xG
0.14
6
Corners
1
10
Fouls
2
0
Yellows
2

Scoreline prediction

The actual scoreline (40) was the model's #4 most likely outcome at 8.4%.

#12016.0%
#23013.4%
#31012.3%
#4408.4%
#5217.5%

Team performance

SpainA+
Passing
In line5/10
Pressing / defence
In line5/10
Set pieces
In line5/10
Chance creation
Above profile8/10
Shot quality
Above profile9/10
Cohesion
In line5/10
Individual quality
In line5/10

The team appears to be in excellent scoring form, securing a decisive 4-0 victory.

Saudi ArabiaF
Passing
In line5/10
Pressing / defence
In line5/10
Set pieces
In line5/10
Chance creation
In line5/10
Shot quality
In line5/10
Cohesion
In line5/10
Individual quality
In line5/10

The team's current form appears to be poor, evidenced by a significant 0-4 defeat.

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

Spain
7.5
Ferran Torres

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.

7.5
Mikel Oyarzabal

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.

7.5
Dani Olmo

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.

7.5
Yéremy Pino

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.

7.5
Nico Williams

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.

7.5
Lamine Yamal

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.

7.5
Borja Iglesias

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.

7
Unai Simón

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.

7
Rodri

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.

7
Pedri

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.

7
Fabián Ruiz

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.

7
Aymeric Laporte

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.

7
Mikel Merino

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.

7
Gavi

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.

7
Marc Cucurella

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.

7
Pedro Porro

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.

7
Eric García

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.

7
David Raya

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.

7
Álex Grimaldo

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.

7
Marcos Llorente

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.

7
Pau Cubarsí

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.

7
Martín Zubimendi

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.

7
Joan Garcia

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.

7
Marc Pubill

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.

7
Álex Baena

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.

7
Víctor Muñoz

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory, maintaining a strong collective performance throughout the match.

Saudi Arabia
4
Firas Al-Buraikan

Part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat, struggling to contain the opposition and create offensive opportunities.

4
Salem Al-Dawsari

Part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat, struggling to contain the opposition and create offensive opportunities.

4
Mohamed Kanno

Part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat, struggling to contain the opposition and create offensive opportunities.

4
Saleh Al-Shehri

Part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat, struggling to contain the opposition and create offensive opportunities.

4
Abdullah Al-Hamdan

Part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat, struggling to contain the opposition and create offensive opportunities.

4
Musab Al-Juwayr

Part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat, struggling to contain the opposition and create offensive opportunities.

4
Abdullah Al-Khaibari

Part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat, struggling to contain the opposition and create offensive opportunities.

4
Ayman Yahya

Part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat, struggling to contain the opposition and create offensive opportunities.

4
Ziyad Al-Johani

Part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat, struggling to contain the opposition and create offensive opportunities.

4
Abdullah Al-Salem

Part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat, struggling to contain the opposition and create offensive opportunities.

4
Khalid Al-Ghannam

Part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat, struggling to contain the opposition and create offensive opportunities.

3.5
Hassan Al-Tambakti

Part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat, struggling to contain the opposition and create offensive opportunities.

3.5
Saud Abdulhamid

Part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat, struggling to contain the opposition and create offensive opportunities.

3.5
Mohammed Al-Owais

Part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat, struggling to contain the opposition and create offensive opportunities.

3.5
Abdulelah Al-Amri

Part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat, struggling to contain the opposition and create offensive opportunities.

3.5
Nasser Al-Dawsari

Part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat, struggling to contain the opposition and create offensive opportunities.

3.5
Nawaf Al-Aqidi

Part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat, struggling to contain the opposition and create offensive opportunities.

3.5
Nawaf Boushal

Part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat, struggling to contain the opposition and create offensive opportunities.

3.5
Ali Lajami

Part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat, struggling to contain the opposition and create offensive opportunities.

3.5
Ali Majrashi

Part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat, struggling to contain the opposition and create offensive opportunities.

3.5
Hassan Kadesh

Part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat, struggling to contain the opposition and create offensive opportunities.

3.5
Ahmed Al-Kassar

Part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat, struggling to contain the opposition and create offensive opportunities.

3.5
Jehad Thakri

Part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat, struggling to contain the opposition and create offensive opportunities.

3.5
Mohammed Abu Al-Shamat

Part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat, struggling to contain the opposition and create offensive opportunities.

3.5
Saleh Abu Al-Shamat

Part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat, struggling to contain the opposition and create offensive opportunities.

3.5
Moteb Al-Harbi

Part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat, struggling to contain the opposition and create offensive opportunities.

Match observations

  • The video captures the post-match atmosphere outside the stadium, with fans of both Spain and Saudi Arabia departing. The scoreboard overlay indicates a decisive 4-0 victory for Spain over Saudi Arabia. Supporters are seen walking in large groups, some wearing team colours and scarves, reflecting the general mood after the final whistle.

Hoe lees je dit. De Brier en log-loss van een enkele wedstrijd zijn ruis: wat telt is hoe de voorspelling kalibreert over veel wedstrijden. Deze terugblik per wedstrijd is een rij van het geaggregeerde kalibratiescoreboard op /docs/calibration/. De voorafwaarschijnlijkheid die hier wordt getoond, is die bevroren voor aftrap; deze is nooit herberekend tijdens de wedstrijd.