Voorspelling versus resultaat · Group G · Matchday 1
Iran vs New Zealand
2026-06-15
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Iran win57.2%
- Draw· realised25.9%
- New Zealand win17.0%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.
Key moments
E. Just (New Zealand)
C. Wood
R. Rezaeian (Iran)
E. Just (New Zealand)
C. Wood
M. Mohebi (Iran)
R. Rezaeian
Match statistics
Scoreline prediction
The actual scoreline (2–2) was outside the model's top 5 predicted outcomes.
Team performance
The team displayed strong attacking intent and resilience, but showed vulnerabilities in defensive organisation.
The team showed attacking intent and individual brilliance but struggled to maintain a lead.
Video analysis: player performance
Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.
8Ramin Rezaeian32'–32'Scored a vital equalizer for Iran with a well-executed shot.
1goals▼
Scored a vital equalizer for Iran with a well-executed shot.
Match timeline
8Mohammad Mohebi64'–64'Scored the second equalizer for Iran with a crucial header, completing a comeback.
1goals1headers▼
Scored the second equalizer for Iran with a crucial header, completing a comeback.
Match timeline
8Alireza BeiranvandMade several crucial saves that prevented New Zealand from extending their lead or scoring more goals.
1saves▼
Made several crucial saves that prevented New Zealand from extending their lead or scoring more goals.
Match timeline
6Arya YousefiPlayed for 50 minutes without any notable positive or negative contributions.
Played for 50 minutes without any notable positive or negative contributions.
6Mehdi Ghayedi50'–50'Came on as a substitute but did not have any notable impact on the game.
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Came on as a substitute but did not have any notable impact on the game.
Match timeline
6Saman Ghoddos65'–65'Played for 65 minutes without any notable positive or negative contributions.
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Played for 65 minutes without any notable positive or negative contributions.
Match timeline
9Elijah Just7'–54'Scored two crucial goals, demonstrating clinical finishing and excellent positioning.
2goals▼
Scored two crucial goals, demonstrating clinical finishing and excellent positioning.
Match timeline
7Max CrocombeMade vital saves for New Zealand, preventing Iran from scoring more than two goals.
1saves▼
Made vital saves for New Zealand, preventing Iran from scoring more than two goals.
Match timeline
6Tim Payne77'–77'Played for 77 minutes without any notable positive or negative contributions.
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Played for 77 minutes without any notable positive or negative contributions.
Match timeline
6Callan Elliot77'–77'Came on as a substitute but did not have any notable impact on the game.
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Came on as a substitute but did not have any notable impact on the game.
Match timeline
6Jesse Randall92'–92'Came on as a late substitute but did not have any notable impact on the game.
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Came on as a late substitute but did not have any notable impact on the game.
Match timeline
Match observations
- The match was a high-energy contest, with both teams demonstrating a strong desire to attack.
- New Zealand established a lead twice, but Iran showed resilience by equalizing on both occasions.
- Key moments included a shot striking the post and multiple impressive saves from both goalkeepers, highlighting the competitive nature of the game.