Group L · Matchday 3

← 試合前の予測
Scheduled
England
–:–
Panama

Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.

Match-outcome probability

  • England win
    75.1%
  • Draw
    18.2%
  • Panama win
    6.6%
CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →

Analysis

The model rates England as clear favourites at 75.1%, with Panama at 6.6% and the draw at 18.2%. The Elo gap is substantial at 283 points in England's favour, reflecting a clear strength differential in recent form. In Group L, England are expected to advance (98.7%) while Panama face a tighter path (43.1%) — this result could be decisive for Panama's campaign.

Tactical matchup

England (balanced) meet Panama (transition heavy) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. England typically dominate possession (55%) compared to Panama's 46% — the ball-control asymmetry could define this match.

Key battlegrounds

Panama will look to stay compact and strike on the transition — defensive discipline is non-negotiable. The individual battle features Harry Kane (P(scores) 7.4%) against Alfredo Stephens (1.7%) — their impact could prove decisive. Panama play a more direct game while England build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.

Situational factors

Panama's Thomas Christiansen (6.4 years in post) brings significantly more tenure than Thomas Tuchel (1.4 years) — squad cohesion and tactical familiarity may differ accordingly.

Match storyline

At 6.6%, a Panama result would qualify as a genuine upset — the kind of group-stage surprise every World Cup produces.

Key numbers

75.1% / 18.2% / 6.6%H / D / ACalibrated ensemble probability
+283Elo differentialEngland 2020 vs Panama 1737
2.63 – 0.45Expected goals (H – A)Dixon-Coles per-team rates
2-0 (16.0%)Modal scorelineMost likely exact full-time result
33.6%Both teams scoreP(both sides find the net)
7.4%P(goal) — Harry KaneHighest anytime-scorer probability in fixture

Latest news & match context

Team news
Match conditions
Stage:
Group L · Matchday 3

Both sides contend with a handful of player doubts ahead of this fixture. Unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.

試合後のキャリブレーションは無料です。 この試合の終了後、予測 vs 結果の振り返りを公開します。試合前の確率と実際の結果、Brier score、log loss、実際の xG と予測値を 振り返りページですべての方に無料公開。

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That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.

The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.

Scoreline distribution

Half-time / full-time

Four models compared

Most likely scorers

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See exactly how England v Panama plays out

The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.

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ライブ確率の仕組み。 公開済みの試合前予測はスタメン確定（T-1h）時点で凍結され、キックオフ後は変わりません。試合後の振り返りでは、この凍結された数値を結果と照合します。試合中に表示されるライブ勝利確率は、同じモデルを現在のスコアと残り時間に合わせて読み直したものです。約1分ごとに更新され、常に遅延があり、記述的なリサーチ数値であって、遊技商品でも何らかの価格でもありません。全体の枠組みは /docs/methodology/ を参照してください。