Group J · Matchday 3
← 試合前の予測Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Algeria win32.2%
- Draw26.1%
- Austria win41.7%
Analysis
Austria carry a slight probability advantage at 41.7% versus 32.2% for Algeria (draw 26.1%). The Elo ratings are within 84 points of each other — a tight matchup on recent form. A Group J fixture with advance probabilities of 67.7% for Algeria and 78.9% for Austria.
Tactical matchup
Algeria (possession dominant) meet Austria (high press) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. Algeria typically dominate possession (68%) compared to Austria's 53% — the ball-control asymmetry could define this match. Algeria press significantly higher (PPDA 11.1) — their ability to force turnovers in advanced positions will be a key tactical dynamic. Algeria carry a notably high set-piece xG share (20%) — dead-ball situations could be a differentiator.
Key battlegrounds
Algeria need to control tempo through midfield — their possession-based approach depends on dictating rhythm. Austria must sustain their pressing intensity to force turnovers in advanced positions. The individual battle features Amine Gouiri (P(scores) 8.1%) against Marcel Sabitzer (6.6%) — their impact could prove decisive. Algeria play a more direct game while Austria build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.
Situational factors
Austria's Ralf Rangnick (4.4 years in post) brings significantly more tenure than Vladimir Petković (2.4 years) — squad cohesion and tactical familiarity may differ accordingly.
Match storyline
For Riyad Mahrez, this may be among the final World Cup fixtures — experience and composure on the biggest stage.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Algeria or Austria.
- Stage:
- Group J · Matchday 3
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The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
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Most likely scorers
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The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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