予測 vs 結果 · Group E · Matchday 3

Curaçao vs Ivory Coast

2026-06-25

Post-match calibration

02
Ivory Coast win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Curaçao win
    14.5%
  • Draw
    25.1%
  • Ivory Coast win· realised
    60.4%
Brier score
0.241
Log loss
0.504
xG (final / predicted)
0.00 / 0.49 · Curaçao
2.00 / 1.99 · Ivory Coast
P(realised outcome)
60.4%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Key moments

7'
Goal

Nicolas Pépé (Ivory Coast)

Yan Diomande

64'
Goal

Nicolas Pépé (Ivory Coast)

Ibrahim Sangaré

Match statistics

CuraçaoIVO
37%
Possession
63%
11
Shots
7
2
On target
3
0.00
xG
0.00
4
Corners
6
11
Fouls
6
2
Yellows
1

Scoreline prediction

The actual scoreline (02) was the model's #1 most likely outcome at 16.6%.

#10216.6%
#20116.1%
#30311.0%
#4008.8%
#5118.6%

Team performance

CuraçaoC-
Passing
In line5/10
Pressing / defence
In line4/10
Set pieces
In line6/10
Chance creation
In line7/10
Shot quality
In line3/10
Cohesion
In line5/10
Individual quality
In line6/10

Curaçao's current form appears concerning, as they failed to convert opportunities and ultimately lost the match 0-2.

Ivory CoastB
Pressing / defence
Below profile4/10
Set pieces
In line6/10
Chance creation
In line7/10
Shot quality
Above profile8/10
Cohesion
In line6/10
Individual quality
Above profile9/10

Ivory Coast secured a vital 2-0 victory, demonstrating resilience under pressure and progressing to the knockout stages.

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

Curaçao
6
Leandro Bacuna

Contributed to the attack with a shot on goal, but had limited overall decisive impact.

1shots

Match timeline

5
Tahith Chong

Showed attacking intent with multiple shots but was unable to convert his opportunities.

2shots

Match timeline

Ivory Coast
9
Nicolas Pepe

Scored both goals for Ivory Coast, demonstrating clinical finishing and a strong attacking presence.

8
Yahia Fofana1'–1'

Made crucial saves to maintain a clean sheet and secure the win for Ivory Coast.

4saves

Match timeline

1'1' [save] Ivory Coast goalkeeper Fofana makes a save from an Ecuador shot
8
Amad Diallo1'–1'

Scored a crucial goal shortly after coming on as a substitute, proving to be the match-winner.

2goals

Match timeline

1'1' [goal] Amad Diallo (CIV #15) scores for Ivory Coast
7
Konan

Demonstrated excellent dribbling to create a notable attacking opportunity for Curaçao.

Match timeline

7
Plata

Was a constant attacking threat, hitting the woodwork and testing the opposition goalkeeper.

Match observations

  • Ivory Coast secured a comfortable 2-0 victory over Curacao in a match played in Philadelphia.
  • Curacao created several opportunities but struggled with their finishing, failing to trouble the scoreline.
  • The atmosphere was vibrant, with both sets of supporters cheering on their teams.

読み方。 1試合の Brier score と log loss はノイズが多く、重要なのは多くの試合にわたるキャリブレーションです。この試合別振り返りは、総合キャリブレーション・スコアボードの1行に相当します。 /docs/calibration/. ここに表示される試合前の確率はキックオフ前に固定されたもので、試合中に再計算されていません。