予測 vs 結果 · Group E · Matchday 3
Germany vs Ecuador
2026-06-25
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Germany win41.5%
- Draw29.8%
- Ecuador win· realised28.8%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.
Key moments
Leroy Sané (Germany)
Florian Wirtz
Nilson Angulo (Ecuador)
Pedro Vite
Kai Havertz (Germany)
Gonzalo Plata (Ecuador)
Kevin Rodriguez
Match statistics
Scoreline prediction
The actual scoreline (1–2) was outside the model's top 5 predicted outcomes.
Team performance
The team showed attacking intent and individual quality but struggled with defensive solidity, leading to a narrow defeat.
The team demonstrated resilience and clinical finishing to secure a hard-fought victory.
Video analysis: player performance
Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.
8Wirtz12'–12'Scored Germany's opening goal with a clinical finish, showcasing excellent positioning and attacking prowess.
1goals▼
Scored Germany's opening goal with a clinical finish, showcasing excellent positioning and attacking prowess.
Match timeline
8RodriguezScored the decisive winning goal from a corner kick, proving to be a match-winner for Ecuador.
Scored the decisive winning goal from a corner kick, proving to be a match-winner for Ecuador.
8Ecuador GK43'–147'Made multiple crucial saves, particularly from headers and a late shot, to secure Ecuador's victory and maintain their lead.
3saves▼
Made multiple crucial saves, particularly from headers and a late shot, to secure Ecuador's victory and maintain their lead.
Match timeline
7Neuer56'–116'Made several crucial saves to keep Germany in the match, despite ultimately conceding two goals.
3saves▼
Made several crucial saves to keep Germany in the match, despite ultimately conceding two goals.
Match timeline
6Havertz43'–101'Despite getting into good scoring positions and having multiple header attempts, he was unable to convert his chances.
2shots2on target▼
Despite getting into good scoring positions and having multiple header attempts, he was unable to convert his chances.
Match timeline
9Angulo24'–116'Scored a brilliant equalizer with individual skill and was a constant offensive threat, testing the German goalkeeper multiple times.
1goals2shots2on target▼
Scored a brilliant equalizer with individual skill and was a constant offensive threat, testing the German goalkeeper multiple times.
Match timeline
8ViteDelivered the corner kick that directly led to Ecuador's winning goal, showcasing his excellent set-piece delivery.
▼
Delivered the corner kick that directly led to Ecuador's winning goal, showcasing his excellent set-piece delivery.
Match timeline
6Valencia56'–56'Contributed to Ecuador's attack with a shot on target that tested the German goalkeeper.
1shots1on target▼
Contributed to Ecuador's attack with a shot on target that tested the German goalkeeper.
Match timeline
6SaneInvolved in an attacking sequence with a shot attempt that was blocked, showing offensive intent.
Involved in an attacking sequence with a shot attempt that was blocked, showing offensive intent.
6GrossHad a late attempt on goal that was saved, demonstrating his willingness to contribute offensively.
Had a late attempt on goal that was saved, demonstrating his willingness to contribute offensively.
Match observations
- The match was a high-energy contest with both teams demonstrating strong attacking intent.
- Germany took an early lead, but Ecuador responded well, showcasing individual skill and capitalizing on set-pieces.
- Both goalkeepers were called into action multiple times, making significant interventions.