Iran
Snapshot · 2026-06-11Model 1.0.0AFC·Girone G·FIFA #20
Transition-heavy side with a Tractor-heavy spine.
- Avversario
- Belgium (#8)
- Legenda
- Mehdi Taremi (FW)
Prospettive nel torneo
Analysis
Iran carry a 0.4% probability of winning the tournament (23rd of 48). The squad bridges generations: Ehsan Hajsafi (36 at kickoff with 144 caps — probably his final world cup) alongside Kasra Taheri, the squad's youngest prospect. Drawn in Group G alongside Belgium, Egypt, New Zealand, they are projected at 83.2% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Iran under Amir Ghalenoei play a transition heavy game, with just 33% possession — among the lowest in the field. Their likely shape is a 4-4-2, though they have also used other. They sit deeper and pick their moments to press (PPDA 29.0) and move the ball forward quickly at 4.5 passes per attack. They are selective in their shooting (8.4 per 90).
Path to success
In Group G alongside Belgium, Egypt, New Zealand, Iran are projected at 83.2% to advance from the group stage. Qualification to the knockout rounds is the primary target. The round of 32 probability sits at 41.9%. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.
What they must execute
Iran rely on defensive discipline and quick transitions — absorbing pressure and converting turnovers into attacking chances. Concentration and defensive organisation for full 90-minute stretches will determine whether the approach holds against top opposition. Managing minutes for Ehsan Hajsafi across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.
Controversial take
One factor to watch: XI averaged only 614 club minutes in 2023-24 — #42 of 43 in the field. Light pre-tournament prep on the starting eleven.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Transition-heavy · style profile from 6 recent matches
What to watch: a quick, few-touch route to attack.
Percentiles position Iran against the 48-team field — higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group G finish · Iran
Monte Carlo, 50,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 23.6%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 37.1%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 27.7%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 11.6%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Iran
, 50,000 sims- 81.1%AdvAdvance from group
- 41.0%R16Round of 16
- 14.4%QFQuarter-final
- 4.2%SFSemi-final
- 1.4%FFinal
- 0.4%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Iran
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsLa rosa
Predicted squad
Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28No jersey numbers assigned in the underlying source. The 26 below are picked by the model from the team's recent call-up pool.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
Low coverage: 1/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.
- Pairwise club minutes
- 0.00%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 1.000
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 100%
- 1 of 1 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Brentford1
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Mehdi TaremiStrikerLikely cover: Ali Alipour · 0.27Persepolis0.39gap to repl.
- Alireza JahanbakhshWingerLikely cover: Mohammad Mohebi · 0.53Rostov0.27gap to repl.
- Hossein KanaanizadeganCentre-backLikely cover: Ali Nemati · 0.27Foolad0.22gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Calendario del girone
Group-stage schedule
| MD | Date | Opponent | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 15, 2026 | New Zealand | Inglewood, United States |
| 2 | Jun 21, 2026 | Belgium | Inglewood, United States |
| 3 | Jun 26, 2026 | Egypt | Seattle, United States |
Confronti diretti
Storie
Storylines
Updated 14 days agoOnly 1 of 26 predicted-squad players played in a top-5 European league last season — the rest play home or in non-top-5 leagues.
36 at kickoff with 144 caps — probably his final World Cup.
19 at kickoff — 2 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.
4 of 26 predicted-squad players play their club football for Tractor — a single-club spine on the international side.
Forma e bilancio storico
Statistical profile
Transition HeavyAttack
Defence
GK: Alireza Beiranvand
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: low
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 6 matches (WC2018,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
10 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-10Iran trajectory: 10 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-10 (19 days). Elo moved from 1760.0 to 1760.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.2% to 0.4% (+0.2pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | NCosta Rica | 5–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2026-03-27 | NNigeria | 1–2 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-11-18 | NUzbekistan | 0–0 | D | Al Ain International Cup |
| 2025-11-13 | NCape Verde | 0–0 | D | Al Ain International Cup |
| 2025-10-14 | NTanzania | 2–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-10-10 | ARussia | 1–2 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-06-10 | HNorth Korea | 3–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-05 | AQatar | 0–1 | L | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-03-25 | HUzbekistan | 2–2 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-03-20 | HUnited Arab Emirates | 2–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 2 | 1-1-0 | 2003 — Win (3–0) · Friendly |
| Egypt | 1 | 0-0-1 | 2000 — Loss (1–1) · Friendly |
| Belgium | 0 | — | No prior meetings |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Asian Cup | 2024 | Semi-finals | 4-1-1 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2022 | Group stage | 1-0-2 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
Saudi Arabia · Asian Cup 2011
Exited at the group stage
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1741) and group draw.
South Korea · Asian Cup 2007
Finished third
South Korea · World Cup 2010
Exited at the round of 16