Round of 32 · Match 1
South AfricavsCanada
2026-06-28·12:00 local·SoFi Stadium · Los AngelesPredictions finalised
Match signals
Factors that favour each side, from statistical models to group stage form and match conditions. Longer bars = stronger advantage.
Canada are strong favourites at 51% vs South Africa's 18%. Most signals point the same way. South Africa will need to outperform their rating.
📊What the Models Say
Rates teams by a single strength number updated after every match. Simpler but fast to react. It rates Canada at 66% to win vs South Africa at 12%.
Simulates the goal-scoring process using attack and defence strength. The heaviest-weighted model. It rates Canada at 46% to win vs South Africa at 21%.
Groups teams by confederation to share information. Helps for teams with fewer matches. It rates Canada at 45% to win vs South Africa at 23%.
The published probability after calibration and adjustments. This is what the model says. It rates Canada at 51% to win vs South Africa at 18%.
All 3 models agree: Canada is favoured. When models agree, the signal is stronger.
⚽Tournament Form
Canada collected 7 points (2W 1D 2L) vs South Africa's 4 (1W 1D 2L). A stronger tournament record.
Canada averaged 1.8 goals per match vs South Africa's 0.5. More firepower coming in.
Similar defensive records: South Africa 1.0, Canada 1.2 goals conceded per match.
Canada's goal difference of +3 is better than South Africa's -2. They outperformed opponents by more.
📈Momentum
South Africa's rating rose +26.2 during the tournament while Canada's moved -24.6. The tournament has been kinder to South Africa.
South Africa's players improved their form ratings during the tournament (+0.0053) vs Canada (+0.0020). Players trending upward.
🏆Team Quality
Canada is rated 1784 vs South Africa's 1524 (gap: 260). That's a very large gap in historical team strength.
The model expects Canada to create 1.19 expected goals vs South Africa's 0.68. More and better chances projected.
Canada's top 3 starters are harder to replace (avg VORP 0.38) than South Africa's (0.31). More star power in key positions.
Similar levels of squad familiarity from club football.
🌍Match Conditions
Canada traveled 1,749km vs South Africa's 16,376km. A shorter journey means less fatigue.
Canada face a 3h timezone shift vs South Africa's 9h. Less jet lag disruption.
17 signals across 5 categories. Signal strength reflects how large the gap is between the two teams on each factor. Signals are descriptive, not prescriptive.
Match-outcome probability
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The model's full forecast for this match
The model rates 0–1 as the most likely scoreline (17.6%). The full distribution, scorer probabilities, and tactical breakdown are inside.
Match-outcome probabilities, the most likely scorelines, scorer probabilities, and the in-match paths. The Standard Pass unlocks them for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
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See exactly how South Africa v Canada plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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Latest news & match context
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- Stage:
- Round of 32 · Match 1
- Date:
- 28 Jun
- Venue:
- SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.
- 1.Elimination stakes: A one-off elimination tie. Motivation, risk appetite and game management under tournament pressure are not model inputs; the forecast rests on team strength and the style matchup.
Both squads look close to full strength going into this match.