Round of 16 · Match 1
ParaguayvsFrance
2026-07-04·17:00 local·Lincoln Financial Field · PhiladelphiaPredictions finalised
Match signals
Factors that favour each side, from statistical models to group stage form and match conditions. Longer bars = stronger advantage.
France are dominant at 66% vs Paraguay's 8%. Quality, form, and model estimates all point the same way. An upset here would be a major story.
📊What the Models Say
Rates teams by a single strength number updated after every match. Simpler but fast to react. It rates France at 74% to win vs Paraguay at 4%.
Simulates the goal-scoring process using attack and defence strength. The heaviest-weighted model. It rates France at 62% to win vs Paraguay at 12%.
Groups teams by confederation to share information. Helps for teams with fewer matches. It rates France at 60% to win vs Paraguay at 14%.
The published probability after calibration and adjustments. This is what the model says. It rates France at 66% to win vs Paraguay at 8%.
All 3 models agree: France is favoured. When models agree, the signal is stronger.
⚽Tournament Form
France collected 18 points (6W 0D 0L) vs Paraguay's 5 (1W 2D 2L). A stronger tournament record.
France averaged 2.67 goals per match vs Paraguay's 0.6. More firepower coming in.
France conceded just 0.33 goals/match vs Paraguay's 1.2. Tighter at the back.
France's goal difference of +14 is better than Paraguay's -3. They outperformed opponents by more.
📈Momentum
France's rating rose +41.4 during the tournament while Paraguay's moved -6.4. The tournament has been kinder to France.
Paraguay's players improved their form ratings during the tournament (+0.0042) vs France (-0.0074). Players trending upward.
🏆Team Quality
France is rated 2081 vs Paraguay's 1833 (gap: 248). That's a very large gap in historical team strength.
The model expects France to create 1.55 expected goals vs Paraguay's 0.55. More and better chances projected.
Paraguay's top 3 starters are harder to replace (avg VORP 0.37) than France's (0.30). More star power in key positions.
France's starters play together at club level more often (0.052 cohesion) than Paraguay's (0.000). More shared understanding on the pitch.
🌍Match Conditions
France traveled 6,033km vs Paraguay's 7,254km. A shorter journey means less fatigue.
Paraguay face a 0h timezone shift vs France's 6h. Less jet lag disruption.
17 signals across 5 categories. Signal strength reflects how large the gap is between the two teams on each factor. Signals are descriptive, not prescriptive.
Match-outcome probability
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The model's full forecast for this match
The model rates 0–1 as the most likely scoreline (18.4%). The full distribution, scorer probabilities, and tactical breakdown are inside.
Match-outcome probabilities, the most likely scorelines, scorer probabilities, and the in-match paths. The Standard Pass unlocks them for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
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See exactly how Paraguay v France plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
Every forecast graded against the real result, scored on 987 matches since 2014. See the scorecard.
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Latest news & match context
- France vs. Spain, 2026 World Cup semifinals: Match thread and discussion · Stars and Stripes FC · 14 Jul
- World Cup Watch Thread: Semi Finals | France vs Spain · Royal Blue Mersey · 14 Jul
- France v Spain - who would England rather face in the World Cup final? · Daily Mirror — Football · 14 Jul
- What color jerseys are France and Spain wearing today? World Cup kit reveal · Yahoo Sports Australia · 14 Jul
- How and where to watch Spain vs. France 2026 World Cup match: TV channel, streaming options · The New York Times · 14 Jul
- Stage:
- Round of 16 · Match 1
- Date:
- 4 Jul
- Venue:
- Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.
- 1.Elimination stakes: A one-off elimination tie. Motivation, risk appetite and game management under tournament pressure are not model inputs; the forecast rests on team strength and the style matchup.
- 2.Rest differential: Paraguay have had 5 days since their previous match versus 4 for France. Rest and recovery are not model inputs.
Both squads look close to full strength going into this match.