DR Congo
Snapshot · 2026-07-14Model 1.0.0CAF·المجموعة K·FIFA #—
Counter-attacking side.
- منافس
- Portugal (#6)
- رئيسي
- Yoane Wissa (FW)
Final squad announced · DR Congo · 2026-05-30
Source: SB Nation ↗WC2026 results
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 17 | Portugal | 1–1 | D | Houston |
| Jun 23 | Colombia | 0–1 | L | Zapopan |
| Jun 27 | Uzbekistan | 3–1 | W | Atlanta |
| Jul 1 | England | 1–2 | L | Atlanta |
نظرة عامة على البطولة
Analysis
DR Congo carry a <0.1% probability of winning the tournament (38th of 48). Drawn in Group K alongside Portugal, Colombia, Uzbekistan, they are projected at 27.6% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
DR Congo under Sébastien Desabre play a counter attacker game with 46% possession. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 20.9) and move the ball forward quickly at 4.9 passes per attack. They favour high-quality chances (xG/shot 0.200, among the best in the field) and rely heavily on set pieces (20% of their xG).
Path to success
In Group K alongside Portugal, Colombia, Uzbekistan, DR Congo are projected at 27.6% to advance from the group stage. A competitive group-stage showing — taking points off higher-ranked opponents — would mark a successful campaign. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.
What they must execute
DR Congo rely on defensive discipline and quick transitions — absorbing pressure and converting turnovers into attacking chances. Concentration and defensive organisation for full 90-minute stretches will determine whether the approach holds against top opposition.
Controversial take
The model's assessment of DR Congo broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Counter-attacking · style profile from 7 recent matches
What to watch: a quick, few-touch route to attack.
Percentiles position DR Congo against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group K finish · DR Congo
Monte Carlo, 100,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 3.8%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 13.3%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 40.9%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 41.9%4thEliminated
Stage progression · DR Congo
, 100,000 sims- 39.8%AdvAdvance from group
- 10.5%R16Round of 16
- 3.0%QFQuarter-final
- 0.6%SFSemi-final
- 0.1%FFinal
- <0.1%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · DR Congo
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsالتشكيلة
Confirmed squad
Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
Low coverage: 5/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.
- Pairwise club minutes
- 0.00%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 0.200
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 60%
- 3 of 5 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Marseille1
- West Ham1
- Nantes1
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Meschak EliaAttacking midfieldLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level AM ~0.400.20gap to repl.
- Gaël KakutaAttacking midfieldLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level AM ~0.400.16gap to repl.
- Yoane WissaStrikerLikely cover: Simon Banza · 0.75Al Jazira0.14gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
جدول المجموعة
Group-stage schedule
| MD | Date | Opponent | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 17, 2026 | Portugal | Houston, United States |
| 2 | Jun 23, 2026 | Colombia | Zapopan, Mexico |
| 3 | Jun 27, 2026 | Uzbekistan | Atlanta, United States |
المواجهات المباشرة
قصص
Storylines
Updated 49 days agoGained 87 international Elo points over the last 12 months — current rating 1767.
Travels 38,411 km across 3 venues in the group stage — one of the longest itineraries in the field.
First World Cup as head coach, appointed 2022.
Conceded only 0.70 xG per match across 6 recent internationals — #7 of 35 in the field for defensive solidity.
الحالة والسجل
Video analysis: DR Congo
Performance data from official highlights analysis across 4 matches. 11 players observed, 23 events tracked.
Delivered an exceptional goalkeeping performance, making numerous crucial saves that kept his team competitive throughout the match.
Player ratings (11)
9Congo DR GK #11 app9▼
Delivered an exceptional goalkeeping performance, making numerous crucial saves that kept his team competitive throughout the match.
8Wissa2 apps · 4 events2 goals1 shot1 header88▼
Scored the crucial equalizer for Congo DR just before half-time and showed attacking threat with another shot.
8Cédric Bakambu1 app · 1 events1 goal8▼
Scored a crucial equalizer with individual brilliance, demonstrating clinical finishing and dribbling skill.
8Lionel Mpasi1 app · 8 events8 saves8▼
Delivered an exceptional performance with numerous crucial saves, keeping his team in the game against relentless pressure.
8Congo DR Goalkeeper1 app8▼
Made several crucial saves in the second half, including from Cancelo and Bruno Fernandes, to secure the draw for Congo DR.
8Sapanga1 app8▼
Scored a crucial opening goal for Congo DR with a clinical finish, giving his team an early lead.
7Bakambu2 apps · 4 events4 shots (1 on target)77▼
6Chancel Mbemba1 app6▼
Made an attacking effort that forced a save from the England goalkeeper, showing offensive intent from defense.
5Mbemba1 app · 2 events1 yellow5▼
Received a yellow card for a foul, impacting his defensive rating.
5Moutoussamy1 app · 2 events1 yellow5▼
Received a yellow card for a foul, impacting his defensive rating.
5Banza1 app · 2 events1 yellow5▼
Received a yellow card for a foul at the very end of the match.
Match observations
- gs-021The match ended in a 1-1 draw, with both teams scoring a goal each.
- gs-021Portugal took an early lead, but Congo DR managed to equalize just before half-time.
- gs-021Both teams had significant chances throughout the game, including shots hitting the post and good saves from the goalkeepers.
- gs-046The match was a closely contested affair, with both teams finding the net and creating numerous opportunities.
- gs-046Portugal took an early lead, but Congo DR responded well to equalise in the second half.
- gs-046The game featured end-to-end action, with both goalkeepers called upon to make significant stops.
- gs-070The match was an attacking spectacle, featuring multiple goals and dynamic offensive movements from both sides.
- gs-070The atmosphere in the stadium was vibrant, with a large crowd and flags representing both nations.
- gs-070COD demonstrated a strong comeback, overturning an early deficit to secure a commanding lead.
- r32-008England then mounted sustained pressure, creating numerous chances that were repeatedly denied by an outstanding goalkeeping performance.
- r32-008Despite the resilience of Congo DR, England eventually found their rhythm and secured a late victory through their captain.
- r32-008The atmosphere in the stadium was electric, with fans reacting passionately to every significant moment.
Statistical profile
Counter AttackerAttack
Defence
GK: Dimitry Bertaud
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: low
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 7 matches (AFCON2023). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24DR Congo trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 1655.0 to 1655.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from <0.1% to 0.1% (0pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | NJamaica | 1–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2026-03-25 | NBermuda | 2–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2026-01-06 | NAlgeria | 0–1 | L | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-30 | NBotswana | 3–0 | W | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-27 | NSenegal | 1–1 | D | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-23 | NBenin | 1–0 | W | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-11-16 | NNigeria | 1–1 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-11-13 | NCameroon | 1–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-14 | HSudan | 1–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-10 | ATogo | 1–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colombia | 1 | 0-0-1 | 2026 — Loss (0–1) · FIFA World Cup |
| Portugal | 1 | 0-1-0 | 2026 — Draw (1–1) · FIFA World Cup |
| Uzbekistan | 0 | — | No prior meetings |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| African Cup of Nations | 2026 | 1 matches | 0-0-1 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 1974 | Group stage | 0-0-3 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
Zimbabwe · Afcon 2004
Exited at the group stage
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1591) and group draw.
Zambia · Afcon 2010
Exited at the quarter-final
Zimbabwe · Afcon 2017
Exited at the group stage
Standard Pass
See all 104 match forecasts
Unlock match probabilities, expected goals, scoreline distributions, and per-player scoring chances across all 104 matches.
Every forecast graded against the real result, scored on 987 matches since 2014. See the scorecard.
24h money-back, no questions asked·No subscription, no auto-renewal·Access through 31 Dec 2026. See refund policy.