Group G · Matchday 3
← Maç öncesi tahminLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Egypt win27.7%
- Draw29.4%
- Iran win42.9%
Analysis
Iran carry a slight probability advantage at 42.9% versus 27.7% for Egypt (draw 29.4%). The Elo ratings are within 71 points of each other — a tight matchup on recent form. A Group G fixture with advance probabilities of 67.8% for Egypt and 83.2% for Iran.
Tactical matchup
Egypt (pragmatic) meet Iran (transition heavy) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. Egypt typically dominate possession (51%) compared to Iran's 33% — the ball-control asymmetry could define this match. Egypt press significantly higher (PPDA 21.8) — their ability to force turnovers in advanced positions will be a key tactical dynamic.
Key battlegrounds
Egypt adapt shape to the opponent — tactical flexibility gives them options but demands quick reads. Iran will look to stay compact and strike on the transition — defensive discipline is non-negotiable. The individual battle features Omar Marmoush (P(scores) 9.1%) against Mehdi Taremi (1.8%) — their impact could prove decisive. Iran play a more direct game while Egypt build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.
Situational factors
Injury watch: Egypt's Mohamed Salah is recovering — availability remains uncertain.
Match storyline
For Ehsan Hajsafi, this may be among the final World Cup fixtures — experience and composure on the biggest stage.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Egypt or Iran.
- Stage:
- Group G · Matchday 3
One side enters this match with several key players facing fitness doubts, while their opponents report a clean bill of health. Unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.
Maç sonu kalibrasyonu ücretsizdir. Bu maç bittiğinde, tahmin ve sonuç özeti (maç öncesi olasılık ile gerçekleşen sonuç karşılaştırması, Brier score, log loss ve gerçekleşen xG ile tahmini xG) şu sayfada yayımlanır: özet sayfası, herkes için açık.
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Egypt v Iran plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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