Group G · Matchday 3
← توقع ما قبل المباراةLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Egypt win27.7%
- Draw29.4%
- Iran win42.9%
Analysis
Iran carry a slight probability advantage at 42.9% versus 27.7% for Egypt (draw 29.4%). The Elo ratings are within 71 points of each other — a tight matchup on recent form. A Group G fixture with advance probabilities of 67.8% for Egypt and 83.2% for Iran.
Tactical matchup
Egypt (pragmatic) meet Iran (transition heavy) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. Egypt typically dominate possession (51%) compared to Iran's 33% — the ball-control asymmetry could define this match. Egypt press significantly higher (PPDA 21.8) — their ability to force turnovers in advanced positions will be a key tactical dynamic.
Key battlegrounds
Egypt adapt shape to the opponent — tactical flexibility gives them options but demands quick reads. Iran will look to stay compact and strike on the transition — defensive discipline is non-negotiable. The individual battle features Omar Marmoush (P(scores) 9.1%) against Mehdi Taremi (1.8%) — their impact could prove decisive. Iran play a more direct game while Egypt build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.
Situational factors
Injury watch: Egypt's Mohamed Salah is recovering — availability remains uncertain.
Match storyline
For Ehsan Hajsafi, this may be among the final World Cup fixtures — experience and composure on the biggest stage.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Egypt or Iran.
- Stage:
- Group G · Matchday 3
One side enters this match with several key players facing fitness doubts, while their opponents report a clean bill of health. Unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.
معايرة ما بعد المباراة مجانية. عند انتهاء هذه المباراة، يُنشر ملخص التوقعات مقابل النتيجة — الاحتمال قبل المباراة مقابل النتيجة الفعلية، وBrier score، وlog loss، وxG النهائي مقابل المتوقع — في صفحة الملخص، متاحة للجميع.
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Egypt v Iran plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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