Saudi Arabia

Snapshot · 2026-07-14Model 1.0.0

AFC·Grup H·FIFA #60

Knockout contender

6 of 26 predicted-squad players play their club football for Al-Hilal — a single-club spine on the international side.

Son diziliş: 4-1-4-1 (3 maçın 2 tanesinde)

Rakip: Spain (#1)
Kilit: Abdullah Al-Hamdan (FW)

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Final squad announced · Saudi Arabia · 2026-06-01

Source: USA Today ↗

WC2026 results

Record0W · 2D · 1L

Goals1:5 (-4)

Form

Date	Opponent	Score	Result	Venue
Jun 15	Uruguay	1–1	D	Miami Gardens
Jun 21	Spain	0–4	L	Atlanta
Jun 26	Cape Verde	0–0	D	Houston

Turnuva görünümü

Analysis

Saudi Arabia carry a <0.1% probability of winning the tournament (37th of 48). Drawn in Group H alongside Spain, Uruguay, Cape Verde, they are projected at 31.5% to advance to the knockout stage.

How they play

Saudi Arabia under Georgios Donis play a balanced game with 52% possession. Their likely shape is a 4-1-4-1, though they have also used 4-3-3. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 17.8). They are selective in their shooting (10.1 per 90).

Path to success

In Group H alongside Spain, Uruguay, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia are projected at 31.5% to advance from the group stage. A competitive group-stage showing — taking points off higher-ranked opponents — would mark a successful campaign. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.

What they must execute

Saudi Arabia will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries. With Georgios Donis appointed relatively recently (161 days before kickoff), building tactical cohesion in limited preparation time is the immediate challenge.

Controversial take

The model and FIFA rankings tell different stories for Saudi Arabia. Model rates them #42 by tournament-winner probability — 18 places higher than FIFA #60.

Key numbers

<0.1%Win probability37th in field

1568Elo ratingRanked 71st globally

4-1-4-1Predicted formationFrom 3 observed matches

0.079xG per shotbottom quartile (40th of 48)

12.1%Tournament goal probability — Abdullah Al-HamdanTop projected scorer in the squad (FW)

161 daysManager tenureGeorgios Donis

How they play

Style vs the 48-team field

Balanced · style profile from 6 recent matches

Press

17.8

Build-up

6.4

Directness

6.2

Width (proxy)

467.5

Tempo

8.9

Set-piece relianceno data

What to watch: one of the more intense presses in the field.

Percentiles position Saudi Arabia against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.

Group H finish · Saudi Arabia

Monte Carlo, 100,000 sims

Top two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.

1st (group winner)
Advances to R32
1.7%
2nd (runner-up)
Advances to R32
11.9%
3rd
Advances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
39.0%
4th
Eliminated
47.3%

Stage progression · Saudi Arabia

, 100,000 sims

32.5%AdvAdvance from group
5.8%R16Round of 16
1.1%QFQuarter-final
0.1%SFSemi-final
<0.1%FFinal
<0.1%WinWin the tournament

Likely knockout path · Saudi Arabia

Monte Carlo, 10,000 sims

Most frequent opponents per round, conditional on reaching it.

R32

Round of 32

Argentina30%

Mexico17%

Algeria8%

R16

Round of 16

England17%

Croatia8%

United States7%

Quarter-final

Brazil13%

Portugal10%

Colombia7%

Semi-final

Argentina18%

Japan9%

Portugal6%

Final

Spain22%

Brazil22%

Argentina22%

Kadro

Confirmed squad

Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28

Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.

Goalkeepers (1)

PlayerStat

Mohammed Al-OwaisCaps-drivenAl-Ula

62c—0.35

Defenders (4)

PlayerStat

Hassan Al-TambaktiCaps-driven↘Al-Hilal

50c—0.46

Saud AbdulhamidCaps-driven→Lens

53c—0.25

Abdulelah Al-AmriCaps-drivenAl-Nassr

40c—0.39

Nawaf BoushalCaps-drivenAl-Nassr

23c—0.25

Midfielders (3)

PlayerStat

Salem Al-DawsariCaps-driven→Al-Hilal

107c13assists0.32

Mohamed KannoCaps-driven→Al-Hilal

74c2assists0.28

Musab Al-JuwayrCaps-drivenAl-Qadsiah

32c4assists0.42

Forwards (3)

PlayerStat

Firas Al-BuraikanCaps-driven→Al-Ahli

68c15goals0.57

Saleh Al-ShehriCaps-drivenAl-Ittihad

55c18goals0.19

Abdullah Al-HamdanCaps-drivenAl-Nassr

47c11goals0.35

Bench

★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.

Goalkeepers (2)

PlayerStat

Nawaf Al-AqidiCaps-drivenAl-Nassr★ Likely first sub

22c—0.36

Ahmed Al-KassarAl-Qadsiah★ Likely first sub

8c—0.18

Defenders (6)

PlayerStat

Ali LajamiCaps-driven↘Al-Hilal★ Likely first sub

19c—0.31

Ali MajrashiCaps-drivenAl-Ahli

20c—0.00

Hassan KadeshCaps-drivenAl-Ittihad

18c—0.00

Jehad ThakriRating-drivenAl-Qadsiah★ Likely first sub

6c—0.21

Mohammed Abu Al-ShamatRating-drivenAl-Qadsiah★ Likely first sub

4c—0.25

Moteb Al-HarbiCaps-drivenAl-Hilal

10c—0.00

Midfielders (5)

PlayerStat

Nasser Al-DawsariCaps-driven→Al-Hilal★ Likely first sub

41c1assists0.22

Abdullah Al-KhaibariCaps-drivenAl-Nassr★ Likely first sub

37c1assists0.28

Ayman YahyaCaps-drivenAl-Nassr★ Likely first sub

25c1assists0.31

Ziyad Al-JohaniCaps-drivenAl-Ahli

11c0assists0.18

Saleh Abu Al-ShamatCaps-drivenAl-Ahli

10c2assists0.03

Forwards (2)

PlayerStat

Abdullah Al-SalemAl-Qadsiah★ Likely first sub

3c0goals0.05

Khalid Al-GhannamCaps-drivenAl-Ettifaq★ Likely first sub

4c0goals0.00

▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained

Pos: Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Caps: Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
Stat: Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
Rating: Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).

★ Likely first sub — the bench player the model rates most likely to be the first substitute for their position. Computed from a first-sub score (cap-recency + impact rating); ties broken by Rating.

Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.

Squad cohesion

Projected XI · club overlap

No club-minutes rows on file for any of the projected XI — this team draws its squad from leagues outside our coverage (Big-5 + understat). Cohesion can't be quantified here until additional league data is wired in.

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Squad depth

Projected XI · replaceability

Most irreplaceable starters

Firas Al-BuraikanStrikerLikely cover: Abdullah Al-Salem · 0.05Al-Qadsiah0.51gap to repl.
Abdullah Al-HamdanStrikerLikely cover: Abdullah Al-Salem · 0.05Al-Qadsiah0.30gap to repl.
Salem Al-DawsariWingerLikely cover: Saleh Abu Al-Shamat · 0.03Al-Ahli0.29gap to repl.

Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Grup programı

Group-stage schedule

MD	Date	Opponent	Venue
1	Jun 15, 2026	Uruguay	Miami Gardens, United States
2	Jun 21, 2026	Spain	Atlanta, United States
3	Jun 26, 2026	Cape Verde	Houston, United States

Karşılıklı maçlar

Saudi Arabia tahmini golcüler →

Hikayeler

Storylines

Updated 49 days ago

Club core

6 of 26 predicted-squad players play their club football for Al-Hilal — a single-club spine on the international side.

League pedigree

Only 0 of 26 predicted-squad players played in a top-5 European league last season — the rest play home or in non-top-5 leagues.

Model bold

Model rates them #42 by tournament-winner probability — 18 places higher than FIFA #60.

TouchlineGeorgios Donis

Appointed less than 18 months ago. Came in from Al-Khaleej.

Form ve geçmiş performans

Video analysis: Saudi Arabia

Performance data from official highlights analysis across 3 matches. 30 players observed, 17 events tracked.

Al-OwaisStandout performer

Made numerous crucial saves to keep his team in the game despite sustained pressure.

Goals

Shots

Saves

Fouls won

Cards

Headers

Rating spread(32 ratings)

8+ (2)7 (1)6 (3)5- (26)

Match by match

Player ratings (30)

Al-Owais1 app · 6 events

5 saves

▼

Made numerous crucial saves to keep his team in the game despite sustained pressure.

gs-0648Made numerous crucial saves to keep his team in the game despite sustained pressure.

6.2

Mohammed Al-Owais2 apps · 6 events

6 saves

93.5

▼

Delivered an outstanding performance with multiple crucial saves, single-handedly securing a point for Saudi Arabia.

gs-0169Delivered an outstanding performance with multiple crucial saves, single-handedly securing a point for Saudi Arabia.

gs-0393.5Part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat, struggling to contain the opposition and create offensive opportunities.

Al-Shabat1 app

▼

Registered a shot on goal but had no further notable impact on the match.

gs-0166Registered a shot on goal but had no further notable impact on the match.

Al-Shammari1 app

▼

Had a shot on target that was saved by the opposing goalkeeper.

gs-0646Had a shot on target that was saved by the opposing goalkeeper.

CHAKHTI1 app

▼

Contributed to offensive movements and provided support in the final third.

gs-0646Contributed to offensive movements and provided support in the final third.

5.2

Abdulelah Al-Amri2 apps · 5 events

2 goals2 headers1 yellow

73.5

▼

Scored Saudi Arabia's only goal from a set piece but was also booked for a challenge.

gs-0167Scored Saudi Arabia's only goal from a set piece but was also booked for a challenge.

gs-0393.5Part of a team that suffered a 4-0 defeat, struggling to contain the opposition and create offensive opportunities.

Firas Al-Buraikan1 app

▼