Previsione vs risultato · Group J · Matchday 1
Argentina vs Algeria
2026-06-16
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Argentina win· realised69.9%
- Draw22.0%
- Algeria win8.1%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.
Key moments
F. Chaibi (Algeria)
L. Messi (Argentina)
R. de Paul
L. Messi (Argentina)
L. Messi (Argentina)
N. Gonzalez
Match statistics
Scoreline prediction
The actual scoreline (3–0) was the model's #4 most likely outcome at 9.1%.
Team performance
The team secured a convincing 3-0 victory, suggesting strong current form.
The 0-3 defeat with minimal offensive threat suggests a team struggling significantly for form.
Video analysis: player performance
Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.
6Lautaro MartinezRegistered one shot on target that was saved, but otherwise had limited impact on the match events.
Registered one shot on target that was saved, but otherwise had limited impact on the match events.
6Julian AlvarezEntered the game as a substitute but had no specific actions mentioned in the match notes.
Entered the game as a substitute but had no specific actions mentioned in the match notes.
6Nicolas GonzalezEntered the game as a substitute but had no specific actions mentioned in the match notes.
Entered the game as a substitute but had no specific actions mentioned in the match notes.
6E. MartinezWas part of team celebrations and reacted to the opponent's goal, but had no direct on-field actions mentioned.
Was part of team celebrations and reacted to the opponent's goal, but had no direct on-field actions mentioned.
7Luca ZidaneMade multiple crucial saves against Messi and Martinez, preventing Algeria from conceding more goals.
Made multiple crucial saves against Messi and Martinez, preventing Algeria from conceding more goals.
6Fares ChaibiScored a goal that was subsequently disallowed due to a foul, limiting his overall positive impact.
Scored a goal that was subsequently disallowed due to a foul, limiting his overall positive impact.
4Rafik BelghaliReceived a yellow card for a foul, which was his only notable action and a negative contribution.
Received a yellow card for a foul, which was his only notable action and a negative contribution.