The first thing to map. Without a clear picture of what bookmakers price, how they price it, and which markets are sharp vs soft, every modeling decision downstream is mis-aimed.
Markets & strategy
Betting Markets and Odds — Landscape Note (Area C)
Summary + sample · full document is 1,714 words
Summary
Sample
The market taxonomy
Pre-match — match outcome
- 1X2 (three-way): home win / draw / away win. The flagship market. Settled at 90 minutes; extra time and penalties don't count.
- Double chance: 1X / 12 / X2. Lower variance, lower margin per unit risk than 1X2.
- Draw No Bet (DNB): draw refunds. Equivalent to a half-stake on each side of a 0-handicap Asian line.
- Asian Handicap (AH): half/quarter goal lines (e.g., −0.5, −0.75, −1, −1.25). Quarter lines split the stake across two adjacent half-lines. AH is the deepest, sharpest football market in the world — Pinnacle and Asian books prioritise it.
- European Handicap: integer-only handicap with a draw outcome. Less popular than AH; thinner liquidity.
Pre-match — totals and goals
- Totals (Over/Under): standard line is 2.5; quarter-goal lines (e.g., 2.25, 2.75) work like Asian handicaps. Heavy correlation with AH on the favourite side.
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