Quarter-final · Match 2
SpainvsBelgium
2026-07-10·12:00 local·SoFi Stadium · Los AngelesPredictions finalised
Match signals
Factors that favour each side, from statistical models to group stage form and match conditions. Longer bars = stronger advantage.
Spain are strong favourites at 57% vs Belgium's 19%. Most signals point the same way. Belgium will need to outperform their rating.
📊What the Models Say
Rates teams by a single strength number updated after every match. Simpler but fast to react. It rates Spain at 72% to win vs Belgium at 6%.
Simulates the goal-scoring process using attack and defence strength. The heaviest-weighted model. It rates Spain at 53% to win vs Belgium at 21%.
Groups teams by confederation to share information. Helps for teams with fewer matches. It rates Spain at 49% to win vs Belgium at 25%.
The published probability after calibration and adjustments. This is what the model says. It rates Spain at 57% to win vs Belgium at 19%.
All 3 models agree: Spain is favoured. When models agree, the signal is stronger.
⚽Tournament Form
Spain collected 13 points (4W 1D 0L) vs Belgium's 11 (3W 2D 0L). A stronger tournament record.
Belgium averaged 2.6 goals per match vs Spain's 1.8. More firepower coming in.
Spain conceded just 0.0 goals/match vs Belgium's 1.0. Tighter at the back.
Spain's goal difference of +9 is better than Belgium's +8. They outperformed opponents by more.
📈Momentum
Belgium's rating rose +25.0 during the tournament while Spain's moved +4.8. The tournament has been kinder to Belgium.
Belgium's players improved their form ratings during the tournament (+0.0046) vs Spain (-0.0096). Players trending upward.
🏆Team Quality
Spain is rated 2165 vs Belgium's 1867 (gap: 298). That's a very large gap in historical team strength.
The model expects Spain to create 1.61 expected goals vs Belgium's 0.92. More and better chances projected.
Similar star-player quality in both squads.
Similar levels of squad familiarity from club football.
🌍Match Conditions
Similar travel distances for both teams.
Equal rest for both sides (4 days since their last match).
17 signals across 5 categories. Signal strength reflects how large the gap is between the two teams on each factor. Signals are descriptive, not prescriptive.
Match-outcome probability
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The model's full forecast for this match
The model rates 1–1 as the most likely scoreline (12.5%). The full distribution, scorer probabilities, and tactical breakdown are inside.
Match-outcome probabilities, the most likely scorelines, scorer probabilities, and the in-match paths. The Standard Pass unlocks them for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
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See exactly how Spain v Belgium plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
Every forecast graded against the real result, scored on 987 matches since 2014. See the scorecard.
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Latest news & match context
- Stage:
- Quarter-final · Match 2
- Date:
- 10 Jul
- Venue:
- SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.
- 1.Elimination stakes: A one-off elimination tie. Motivation, risk appetite and game management under tournament pressure are not model inputs; the forecast rests on team strength and the style matchup.
Both squads look close to full strength going into this match.