研究笔记
状态: Shipped (Variant 4 — per-tier Platt temperature scaling). Production calibrator uses a hybrid strategy: Platt for the tournament tier (where isotonic collapses to identity at n~70), isotonic for friendlies/qualifiers (where it's more expressive at n~400+). Gate passed. See results below要点 + 全文 · 3,433 字
The shipping ensemble calibrator (scripts/fit_ensemble_calibrator.py) fits per-class isotonic regression curves on the uniform-averaged three-component output (Elo bracket MC + Dixon-Coles + Hierarchical Poisson MAP). The first cut lifted holdout ECE on the 365-day common-subset training pool from 4.62pp uncalibrated → 2.70pp under the pooled-across-tiers fit (5-fold CV, n_train = 939, current artefact at data/wc2026/ensemble_calibrator.json).
A subsequent tier-aware refit (three sets…
Standard Pass
Calibrating predictions differently for friendlies vs tournaments 共 3,433 字。Standard Pass 解锁所有研究笔记全文, 以及完整预测和逐队、逐球员评分, 有效期至赛事结束。
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