公开检验
27 Jun 2026
下方每个概率都在开赛前发布并锁定。本页面将每个概率与实际结果进行对比评分。
当日均值： Strong read
Argentina 3–1 Jordan was the outcome the model rated most likely (84.9% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.040, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
Match ratings
Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.
Argentina9Lionel MessiAMMessi was the decisive attacking force, scoring two crucial goals and assisting the winner after coming on as a substitute.8Lisandro MartinezCBScored a crucial goal for Argentina from a scramble in the box.8Cristian RomeroCBHeaded in the decisive winning goal from a corner, securing the victory for Argentina.Jordan8Jordan GoalkeeperGKDelivered an outstanding performance with multiple crucial saves, keeping his team in the game against a relentless attack.8Musa Al-TaamariSTScored Jordan's only goal with a well-placed and composed finish, demonstrating good attacking instinct.8JovaneSTScored a crucial equalizer from close range after a scramble, bringing his team back into the game.Algeria 3–3 Austria was an outcome the model rated at 26.6% (26.6% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.816, worse than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
Match ratings
Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.
Algeria8MazaAMWas a persistent attacking threat, creating multiple chances and directly contributing to a goal.8ChaibiAMScored a vital go-ahead goal and showed attacking intent by hitting the post.7AouarAMHis shot created the rebound opportunity from which Mahrez scored a vital equalizer.Austria8ArnautovićSTOpened the scoring for Austria with a well-taken goal, demonstrating excellent movement.8KalajdzicSTSecured a crucial late equalizer with a well-placed header, showcasing his aerial ability.7LaimerRMProvided an assist for Austria's second goal after an effective attacking run and delivery.Portugal 0–0 Colombia was an outcome the model rated at 26.6% (26.6% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.809, worse than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
Match ratings
Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.
Portugal8Cristiano RonaldoSTScored the crucial equalizer from the penalty spot and showed leadership, despite an earlier disallowed goal.8Gonçalo RamosSTCame off the bench to score the decisive winning header, showcasing his aerial ability and impact.7CordobaSTWas highly active in attack, taking numerous shots and consistently posing a threat to the opposition's goal.Colombia8Dominik LivakovićGKDelivered an outstanding performance with a string of crucial saves, despite conceding two goals including a penalty.7Ivan PerišićLWOpened the scoring for Croatia with a well-placed shot, demonstrating his attacking quality.7Nikola VlašićAMShowed offensive threat by hitting the post and being involved in a disallowed goal.DR Congo 3–1 Uzbekistan was an outcome the model rated at 30.3% (30.3% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.733, worse than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
Match ratings
Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.
DR Congo8Cédric BakambuSTScored a crucial equalizer with individual brilliance, demonstrating clinical finishing and dribbling skill.8Lionel MpasiGKDelivered an exceptional performance with numerous crucial saves, keeping his team in the game against relentless pressure.Uzbekistan8MunozRBScored the decisive goal for Colombia, showcasing good attacking positioning to secure the win.7Luis DiazLWA constant attacking threat who created several chances and had a goal disallowed for offside.6PuertaCMContributed to Colombia's attacking efforts with two shots on target, showing offensive intent from midfield.England 2–0 Panama was the outcome the model rated most likely (78.8% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.074, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
Match ratings
Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.
England9Jude BellinghamCMScored a brilliant goal, was described as England's best player, and demonstrated exceptional control, technique, and work rate.8Harry KaneSTScored a crucial headed goal, demonstrating great runs and composure in front of goal.7Marcus RashfordLWCreated numerous attacking opportunities and tested the goalkeeper multiple times, though he couldn't find the back of the net.Panama9Luis MejíaGKMade multiple crucial and impressive saves, keeping the scoreline respectable despite England's attacking pressure.6José Luis RodríguezRWProduced a powerful shot on target that tested the England goalkeeper.6José FajardoSTScored a goal that was unfortunately disallowed for offside, showing good attacking instinct.Croatia 2–1 Ghana was the outcome the model rated most likely (71.4% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.132, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
Match ratings
Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.
Croatia9Dominik LivakovićGKDelivered a commanding performance with multiple vital and stunning saves, keeping Croatia in the match.8Luka SučićCMOpened the scoring for Croatia with a well-placed shot and maintained a persistent attacking threat throughout the match.8Ante BudimirSTScored the decisive winning goal for Croatia with a clinical header.Ghana
See how the forecast holds up
OnThePitch grades every probability against what actually happens, and publishes the calibration in the open. Subscribe to follow the retrospectives and research as they ship — one email per post, no marketing.
Already read on Substack? Follow OnThePitch there — same posts, slightly different format.