预测与结果对照 · Group F · Matchday 2
Netherlands vs Sweden
2026-06-20
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Netherlands win· realised58.9%
- Draw23.6%
- Sweden win17.5%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.
Key moments
B. Brobbey (Netherlands)
C. Gakpo
B. Brobbey (Netherlands)
D. Dumfries
C. Gakpo (Netherlands)
D. Dumfries
C. Gakpo (Netherlands)
C. Summerville
A. Elanga (Sweden)
A. Isak
C. Summerville (Netherlands)
M. Depay
Match statistics
Scoreline prediction
The actual scoreline (5–1) was outside the model's top 5 predicted outcomes.
Team performance
The team demonstrated potent attacking form, securing a comfortable victory despite some defensive vulnerabilities.
This heavy defeat suggests the team is in very poor form, particularly defensively.
Video analysis: player performance
Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.
9Brobbey0'–0'Scored two crucial early goals, demonstrating excellent predatory instincts and clinical finishing.
2goals▼
Scored two crucial early goals, demonstrating excellent predatory instincts and clinical finishing.
Match timeline
9Verbruggen0'–0'Made multiple crucial saves throughout the match, preventing Sweden from scoring more and maintaining the Netherlands' lead.
4saves▼
Made multiple crucial saves throughout the match, preventing Sweden from scoring more and maintaining the Netherlands' lead.
Match timeline
9Gakpo0'–0'Scored two clinical goals, significantly contributing to the Netherlands' dominant scoreline.
2goals▼
Scored two clinical goals, significantly contributing to the Netherlands' dominant scoreline.
Match timeline
8DumfriesDelivered two crucial assists from the right flank, directly contributing to the team's scoring.
Delivered two crucial assists from the right flank, directly contributing to the team's scoring.
7Simons0'–0'Contributed to the dominant victory by scoring a well-placed goal late in the match.
1goals▼
Contributed to the dominant victory by scoring a well-placed goal late in the match.
Match timeline
7Elanga0'–0'Scored Sweden's only goal with a composed finish and showed good individual dribbling ability.
1goals▼
Scored Sweden's only goal with a composed finish and showed good individual dribbling ability.
Match timeline
6Ayari0'–0'Tested the goalkeeper with a strong shot, demonstrating attacking intent from midfield.
1shots1on target▼
Tested the goalkeeper with a strong shot, demonstrating attacking intent from midfield.
Match timeline
5Isak0'–0'Despite multiple attempts and good movement, he was repeatedly denied by the goalkeeper and failed to convert his chances.
2shots2on target▼
Despite multiple attempts and good movement, he was repeatedly denied by the goalkeeper and failed to convert his chances.
Match timeline
Match observations
- The match saw a dominant performance from the Netherlands, who secured a comfortable 5-1 victory over Sweden.
- The Dutch attack was clinical, converting multiple opportunities, particularly from wide areas.
- Sweden created several chances, but were repeatedly thwarted by the Netherlands' goalkeeper.