预测与结果对照 · Group E · Matchday 2
Curaçao vs Ecuador
2026-06-20
Post-match calibration
0 – 0
DrawPre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Curaçao win5.8%
- Draw· realised19.6%
- Ecuador win74.6%
Brier score
1.205
Log loss
1.628
xG (final / predicted)
3.06 / 0.38 · Curaçao
0.48 / 2.10 · Ecuador
P(realised outcome)
19.6%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.
Surprise resultThe draw was given a 19.6% probability pre-match.
xG underperformanceCuraçao scored 0 from 3.06 xG.
Match statistics
CuraçaoEcuador
75%Possession25%
28Shots10
15On target3
3.06xG0.48
9Corners0
7Fouls10
1Yellows5
Scoreline prediction
The actual scoreline (0–0) was the model's #4 most likely outcome at 8.7%.
#10–218.4%
#20–117.2%
#30–312.9%
#40–08.7%
#51–27.0%
Team performance
CuraçaoD
Passing
In line5/10
Pressing / defence
In line5/10
Set pieces
In line5/10
Chance creation
In line7/10
Shot quality
Below profile3/10
Cohesion
In line5/10
Individual quality
Below profile4/10
[redacted - vocab gate]
EcuadorF
Passing
In line5/10
Pressing / defence
Below profile4/10
Set pieces
In line5/10
Chance creation
Below profile1/10
Shot quality
Below profile1/10
Cohesion
In line5/10
Individual quality
Above profile8/10
The team failed to score and relied heavily on their goalkeeper to secure a draw, suggesting a struggle for form.
Video analysis: player performance
Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.
Curaçao
Ecuador
8Hernán GalíndezMade a crucial, athletic save from a powerful shot, denying a clear goal-scoring opportunity and keeping his team level.
Hernán Galíndez
Made a crucial, athletic save from a powerful shot, denying a clear goal-scoring opportunity and keeping his team level.
Match observations
- Curacao, making their first appearance at a FIFA World Cup, created several attacking opportunities throughout the contest.
- Despite their efforts, Curacao struggled with their finishing, failing to convert their chances into goals.
- Ecuador's goalkeeper played a pivotal role, making a significant save to keep the score level in a tightly contested affair.