Round of 32 · Match 12
Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
Standard Pass for probabilitiesLatest news & match context
- France vs. Spain, 2026 World Cup semifinals: Match thread and discussion · Stars and Stripes FC · 14 Jul
- World Cup Watch Thread: Semi Finals | France vs Spain · Royal Blue Mersey · 14 Jul
- France v Spain - who would England rather face in the World Cup final? · Daily Mirror — Football · 14 Jul
- What color jerseys are France and Spain wearing today? World Cup kit reveal · Yahoo Sports Australia · 14 Jul
- How and where to watch Spain vs. France 2026 World Cup match: TV channel, streaming options · The New York Times · 14 Jul
- Stage:
- Round of 32 · Match 12
- Date:
- 2 Jul
- Venue:
- SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.
- 1.Elimination stakes: A one-off elimination tie. Motivation, risk appetite and game management under tournament pressure are not model inputs; the forecast rests on team strength and the style matchup.
- 2.Rest differential: Spain have had 6 days since their previous match versus 5 for Austria. Rest and recovery are not model inputs.
Both squads look close to full strength going into this match.
Maç sonu kalibrasyonu ücretsizdir. Bu maç bittiğinde, tahmin ve sonuç özeti (maç öncesi olasılık ile gerçekleşen sonuç karşılaştırması, Brier score, log loss ve gerçekleşen xG ile tahmini xG) şu sayfada yayımlanır: özet sayfası, herkes için açık.
Standard Pass
The model's full forecast for this match
Match-outcome probabilities, the most likely scorelines, scorer probabilities, and the in-match paths. The Standard Pass unlocks them for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Spain v Austria plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
Every forecast graded against the real result, scored on 987 matches since 2014. See the scorecard.
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