# onthepitch

> https://onthepitch.now

Statistical prediction model for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Publishes win probabilities, match forecasts, and predicted squads for all 48 teams. Model output is probabilities, not recommendations.

## What the model is

A calibrated ensemble of three models — Elo, Dixon-Coles (Poisson with xG response), and Hierarchical Bayesian Poisson — run through 100,000 Monte Carlo bracket simulations. Honest leakage-free tournament Brier score: 0.572 across 987 matches from 24 major tournaments (2014-2024). Walk-forward backtest Brier: 0.503 across 2,033 international matches.

The model auto-refits daily as new results come in. All probabilities update automatically.

## Key pages

- [Tournament forecasts](https://onthepitch.now/forecast/): Win probability for all 48 teams
- [Match fixtures](https://onthepitch.now/fixtures/): Per-match home/draw/away probabilities
- [Head-to-head](https://onthepitch.now/h2h/): Pairwise matchup forecasts for every group-stage pairing
- [Countries](https://onthepitch.now/countries/): Per-team profiles with squad, form, and progression odds
- [Top scorers](https://onthepitch.now/scorers/): Anytime-scorer probability model
- [Players](https://onthepitch.now/players/): Squad rosters and career statistics
- [Counterfactuals](https://onthepitch.now/forecast/counterfactuals/): What-if scenario explorer
- [Accuracy](https://onthepitch.now/accuracy/): Historical calibration and Brier score tracking
- [Report card](https://onthepitch.now/report-card/): Daily model performance assessment
- [Live tracker](https://onthepitch.now/live/): Real-time match tracking during games

## Methodology and research

- [Full methodology](https://onthepitch.now/docs/methodology/): Complete technical documentation of the model
- [Data sources](https://onthepitch.now/docs/data-sources/): All inputs and their provenance
- [Calibration](https://onthepitch.now/docs/calibration/): Reliability diagrams and calibration analysis
- [Why trust the numbers](https://onthepitch.now/docs/why-trust-the-numbers/): Model validation approach
- [Inputs overview](https://onthepitch.now/docs/inputs-overview/): Catalog of model features
- [Contextual factors](https://onthepitch.now/docs/contextual-factors/): Home advantage, travel, weather, referees

## Research notes (ablation studies)

Published experiment logs with methods and results:
- [Research notes index](https://onthepitch.now/research/notes/)
- [Squad cohesion analysis](https://onthepitch.now/research/squad-cohesion/)
- [Counter-narrative positions](https://onthepitch.now/research/counter-narrative/)
- [Negative results](https://onthepitch.now/research/negative-results/)

## Blog

Match analysis, model explainers, and pre-tournament research:
- [All posts](https://onthepitch.now/posts/)

## API

Public REST API for programmatic access to forecasts:
- [API documentation](https://onthepitch.now/data/api/)
- `GET https://onthepitch.now/api/v1/forecast/` — tournament win probabilities
- `GET https://onthepitch.now/api/v1/h2h/` — head-to-head match probabilities
- `GET https://onthepitch.now/api/v1/schedule/` — fixture schedule
- `GET https://onthepitch.now/api/v1/anytime-scorer/` — top scorer probabilities

## Machine-readable feeds

- [Sitemap](https://onthepitch.now/sitemap.xml)
- [Atom feed](https://onthepitch.now/feed.xml)

## About

Independent statistical forecasting project. Not affiliated with FIFA, any football federation, or any gambling operator. The site publishes probabilities derived from public data. It does not publish odds, recommendations, or betting advice.

Available in 12 languages: English, German, Spanish, French, Japanese, Portuguese, Chinese, and others.