{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "built_at": "2026-06-10T22:56:54+00:00",
  "total_n": 0,
  "reliability": {
    "bins": [
      {
        "bin_low": 0.0,
        "bin_high": 0.1,
        "predicted_mean": null,
        "observed_freq": null,
        "n": 0
      },
      {
        "bin_low": 0.1,
        "bin_high": 0.2,
        "predicted_mean": null,
        "observed_freq": null,
        "n": 0
      },
      {
        "bin_low": 0.2,
        "bin_high": 0.3,
        "predicted_mean": null,
        "observed_freq": null,
        "n": 0
      },
      {
        "bin_low": 0.3,
        "bin_high": 0.4,
        "predicted_mean": null,
        "observed_freq": null,
        "n": 0
      },
      {
        "bin_low": 0.4,
        "bin_high": 0.5,
        "predicted_mean": null,
        "observed_freq": null,
        "n": 0
      },
      {
        "bin_low": 0.5,
        "bin_high": 0.6,
        "predicted_mean": null,
        "observed_freq": null,
        "n": 0
      },
      {
        "bin_low": 0.6,
        "bin_high": 0.7,
        "predicted_mean": null,
        "observed_freq": null,
        "n": 0
      },
      {
        "bin_low": 0.7,
        "bin_high": 0.8,
        "predicted_mean": null,
        "observed_freq": null,
        "n": 0
      },
      {
        "bin_low": 0.8,
        "bin_high": 0.9,
        "predicted_mean": null,
        "observed_freq": null,
        "n": 0
      },
      {
        "bin_low": 0.9,
        "bin_high": 1.0,
        "predicted_mean": null,
        "observed_freq": null,
        "n": 0
      }
    ]
  },
  "segments": {
    "by_competition": [
      {
        "label": "World Cup 2026",
        "n": 0,
        "brier": null,
        "log_loss": null,
        "ece": null
      }
    ],
    "by_stage": [
      {
        "label": "Group stage",
        "n": 0,
        "brier": null,
        "log_loss": null,
        "ece": null
      },
      {
        "label": "Round of 32",
        "n": 0,
        "brier": null,
        "log_loss": null,
        "ece": null
      },
      {
        "label": "Round of 16",
        "n": 0,
        "brier": null,
        "log_loss": null,
        "ece": null
      },
      {
        "label": "Quarter-final",
        "n": 0,
        "brier": null,
        "log_loss": null,
        "ece": null
      },
      {
        "label": "Semi-final",
        "n": 0,
        "brier": null,
        "log_loss": null,
        "ece": null
      },
      {
        "label": "Third-place play-off",
        "n": 0,
        "brier": null,
        "log_loss": null,
        "ece": null
      },
      {
        "label": "Final",
        "n": 0,
        "brier": null,
        "log_loss": null,
        "ece": null
      }
    ],
    "by_favourite_band": [
      {
        "label": "P_fav < 40%",
        "n": 0,
        "brier": null,
        "log_loss": null,
        "ece": null
      },
      {
        "label": "P_fav 40-60%",
        "n": 0,
        "brier": null,
        "log_loss": null,
        "ece": null
      },
      {
        "label": "P_fav 60-80%",
        "n": 0,
        "brier": null,
        "log_loss": null,
        "ece": null
      },
      {
        "label": "P_fav >= 80%",
        "n": 0,
        "brier": null,
        "log_loss": null,
        "ece": null
      }
    ]
  },
  "global_brier": null,
  "provenance": {
    "what": "Reliability bins and segment breakdowns for the model's 2026 World Cup match forecasts, scored against observed results.",
    "graded_forecast_rule": "Each match is graded against the earliest forecast logged at least 24 hours before kickoff, from an append-only prediction log. Later forecasts never replace an earlier row, so the graded number is settled the moment it is written.",
    "reliability": "Forecasts are grouped into ten probability bins. predicted_mean is the average stated probability in a bin; observed_freq is how often those outcomes actually happened. The two are close when the forecaster is calibrated.",
    "methodology_url": "https://onthepitch.now/docs/methodology/",
    "scoreboard_url": "https://onthepitch.now/docs/calibration/",
    "receipts_url": "https://onthepitch.now/precommitment_receipts.json",
    "frozen_record_url": "https://onthepitch.now/frozen_predictions.json"
  },
  "model_version": "1.0.0"
}